So the growth rates (GDP, credit ratings etc) show no promise or hint of a genuine rise in the numbers. I don’t think much can be expected, even if there is a phenomenal growth, it is expected to be less than 6 for the next fiscal year.
Basically our manufacturing industry has been down, so is the service industry and agriculture has taken a hit thanks to erratic rainfall.
If we were still dependent on rain then the GDP would have been around 4 or even less. But we are more or less agrarian market and will always be. The industry sector has taken a hit because of a policy standstill and service industry has because of the global slowdown.
As a common man there isn’t much I / we can do about all of the above mentioned problems – They are not in our hands, but in the hands of policy makers. All I can do is rant and wait for change to happen.
But Yes, there are definitely a few things that an individual could do to keep his chin up and brace for not-so-predictable future! Here they are…
Invest in companies which have strong fundamentals. Invest for a long term, buy shares and forget about selling them for the next 18-24 months, just keep a weekly check on the growth/fall. Even if it grows don’t sell in momentary happiness or if it falls don’t sell in panic. Decisions made in the heat of the moment are right as long as it is not taken emotionally. And we are emotional about our investments, so no hasty decisions…that’s a cardinal rule
Indian culture has always promoted saving more and more for the time it doesn’t rain. But earlier on when these values were in practice, each one was self sufficient. By that, I mean, what you produced or earned was for yourself, if you are a farmer you ate what you grew and then sold the rest, if you were a businessmen the production was limited to the market that existed and expansion was a too risky thing.
When I say saving, I mean in the form of some reliable investment like gold or real estate, something which is physical in nature and can be a form of reassurance when the investment are a bit down. This will not only keep your profile on the positive side but also keep a part of tension from your heart. Keeping liquid cash is also saving, but how much can you keep rotting in bank.
Indian job market philosophy doesn’t practice lay-offs. Lay off is something not practiced because well it doesn’t suit a company’s image and hence the stock market. But they pressurize the workforce into working late nights and curtails its expansion plans including workforce expansion i.e. hiring.
So if you have a job already just work even harder than you already do (and smarter), put more hours in a day if you can and you are safe. But for the ones who are searching for a job, it sure will be an uphill task for them.
Inflation will hover between 7-10% and to boost the consumer expenditure which will put the industry out of the red this figure has to come down to 3%. But since this again is isn’t in our hands, the only thing we can do is buy essentials in essential quantities only.
Shopping at huge marts actually defeats the sense of purpose and fuels the sense of need. So save trips to the huge mart and shop at the local kirana store sometime or simply put blinders when you are at huge marts, because the philosophy on which these super-stores thrive on is that you will buy even what is not needed.
I still maintain that India won’t face a recession but a slowdown. And the best we can do is be prepared for this…
What’s your take on this?