The Young and working population of India is the biggest positive factor for India and its growth in coming years – We have written about it many times earlier on this blog, and another survey reiterates this fact again with some Interesting numbers !
Just to show you the amount of difference between other developing Countries and India – Have a look at this graph.
Between 2010-2030, India will add 241 Million people in working-age population (and that means the children who are currently in our education system), Brazil will add around 18 million, while China will add a meager 10 million people during the same time.
So even with all the drawbacks that India has, this particular Indian aspect is going to prove pivotal in making India the world leader in coming years.
The demographic outlook for the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – could hardly be more different. In terms of the demographic transition model, India is at the beginning of stage three (declining fertility, population growth), Brazil and China are at stage four (low mortality and fertility, population trending towards stability), while Russia is already at stage five (sub-replacement-rate fertility, declining population). Not surprisingly, the differences in the projected change in the working-age population – the economically relevant variable – are very significant in both absolute and relative terms. [Source: DB Research]
The demographic developments in the BRICs over the next 10, 20, 30 years will vary greatly. This will impact not only economic growth prospects, but also savings and investment behavior and potentially – if somewhat difficult to quantify – financial market growth prospects. India is demographically in a substantially more favorable position than China and Russia.
Brazil’s “demographic window” (defined here, non-technically, as a falling dependency ratio) will close around 2020-25, while in China and Russia it is closing right now. India, by contrast, will enjoy a very favorable demographic momentum for another three decades.
So even though in current scenario, India may not exactly be mentioned in the same breath as US, UK and China, the picture in next couple of decades will be quite different.
Even from our Financial Markets point of view – If you really have a long-long term view, there is not better place to invest in stock Markets than in India !
What are your views – Do you see things differently?