I am amazed at the way Indian real estate market is rising. It has many similarities to the Indian stock market but minus the volatility.
I had earlier mentioned how it has proved me wrong. Since then, I have stopped making any predictions on Indian real estate market. Although, US has shown clear signs of things slowing down in last year or so, India is carrying on with same breakneck pace that it picked up sometime at the start of the decade.
Although rate of growth in metros is slowed down a bit (as the rates have reached such astronomical levels that even higher middle class Indians are finding it tough to buy), all other cities and smaller towns are growing at around 50% year on year. In some places like Pune and Mysore, it is touching 100%.
The growth is even more surprising considering the fact that home loan interest rates shot up by nearly 25% compared to 2005. This rate increase did not deter the rising home prices even a bit.
 
What are the reasons for such multifold rise? and how long is this run going to continue?
Here is my perspective on things.
Contents
Cash rich Indian middle class consumers
This off-course is the biggest reason of all. Indian consumers are making more money than ever before. The demand from growing Indian middle class is so high that there is a huge gap between demand and supply. The supply is just not able to keep up with the demand, thereby increasing the rates. As of last month there is a shortage of 25 million residential homes in India!
Multinationals setting up shop in India
India forms an important part of growth strategy for every major multinational worldwide. The potential of growth in Indian market is huge. The entry of multinationals in India has grown by over 300% in last 2 years alone. Due to this, demand for office space has increased multifold. Not only does this add to the demand, these multinationals are adding more lucrative high paying jobs which again has a spiraling effect. With higher incomes, Indian people are investing more in real estate than ever before.
Indian corporations getting more dynamic
Indian corporations themselves are getting dynamic than ever before. The total Mergers and Acquisitions deals for the year during January-May 2007 have been 287 with a value of US$ 47.37 billion. Of these, the total outbound cross border deals have been 102 with a value of US$ 28.19 billion, representing 59.5 per cent of the total M&A activity in India. These Indian companies need much more office space adding to overall demand.
Foreign Direct Investment in Indian real estate sector
With Indian Government opening up Indian real estate to Foreign Direct Investment in 2005, lot of money is being invested in various projects across the country catering to the demand.
Positive initiatives by Indian government
Not only has Indian Government liberalized the FDI norms, it has also allowed private equity funds to enter the real estate market. They have also introduced the SEZ act and allocated nearly Rs. 50,000 crores for improvement of Indian infrastructure fueling the real estate growth.
Positive outlook of Indian Economy
With Indian economy looking better than ever before, Investors are confidently pumping money in Indian property market.
Demand for quality lifestyle
With higher disposable incomes, and concept of nuclear families becoming a norm, Indians are looking for quality lifestyle, thereby increasing the demand for integrated townships that offer commercial, retail, residential, and leisure facilities within a given area.
Looking at all the macro reasons stated above, I doubt that this Indian real estate market will slowdown anytime in near future.
I would love to hear reader’s reactions and what they think about where Indian real estate market is heading.
I fully endorse the views of Dave and Fed up 2.
The Politicians and Builders are reponsible for this rise and India is sitting on the verge of Social crisis because of their thirst for Money.
They are the leach sucking blood of common man and screwing the country’s economy.
The Gap between Poor and Rich is increasing day by day. In times to come, it would be so high that poor and unemployed would start picking up the guns and middle class would pay the price for being easy targets.
Cops would charge lakhs to come for security cover.
Corruption would be huge, you would not be able to escape from a traffic cops just by bribing them Rs 50.Corruption would be Huge.
Politicians are bringing in their black money stinking in swiss banks for years through Malyasia, Singapore , Dubai and other tax heavens in the name of some dummy companies/investors backed by Politicians.
more than 70,000 crore was brought in alone from last 2 years, for investments in real estate sector in the name of forged companies and individuals.
Politicians have invested huge money in these projects by booking 30% to 50% of units in a single project.
There are countless builder projects, when inquired for the price on 1st day of booking, it was found that all good locations units were already sold and only 20% to 30% units were left for public buyers and that to at a very high price. but actually they have 50% to 70% of units with them, which they keep selling at higher rates.
If a builder is able to sell 30% of units, his profit for the project is met.
All the big construction on palm beach road at Navi Mumbai shows only less that 40% occupancy, though the buildings were completed in 2007.
Knowing all these facts Govt is still silent on these issues ( after all who is government ??? Politicians ! )
Politicians still have huge black money to invest.The Real estate Market will go on like this and would not going to come down atleast in next one year.
Do you know what comes after all that virtual welfare and “progress”?
With sales gradually picking up in the real estate sector, developers are swiftly increasing prices. Tata Housing has emerged as the lead developer to have hiked property prices in the recent days. The company has increased prices of residential units at Eden Court, its first housing project in West Bengal, for the second time in the last one week, to Rs 2,900per square feet from the staring price of Rs 2,750 per square feet. “The rise in prices is in tandem with the demand, as almost 70 per cent of the residential units in the project have been sold out,
Hi all,
after a long gap i am IN again! I am yet to see residential property rates coming down though they look like stable and lower in sub to sub urban areas …otherwise it is all the same!
It was dull for last two months and again I can see good movement…mebbe cuz of interest rates slashed! there is a demand still! Commercial is gone…nosedive!
Everyone try their best to make even just a little difference. If still it won’t fall, then we have nothing to do about that, anymore. Let’s just wait for the history to come back…
History Repeats! I think we are in a situation similar to the one in 1995. Back then real estate bottomed about 1998. It is believed that real estate unlike stocks needs the same amount of time (time needed to build the bubble) to bottom out. This bubble was built in about 3/4 years. One could possibly see a bottom in real estate in 2 to 3 years.
Yes its going to be a long wait for the bottom.
For all the analysis that’s being written everywhere, there are a few simple truths that can’t be refuted:-
1. I am perhaps amongst the top 5% of the 106 Crore people in the country as far as my income goes (Rs 50,000/- pm). In my late 30’s now, I can not buy a barely decent flat in a metro (even third rate ones like Pune) for it means losing my savings (about 20 Lacs) and also losing my life to EMIs till I retire. Just a flat to show at 60 with no savings whatsoever? Its scary.
2. When I look around the city I live in, there are a huge number of brand new towers in all sorts of obscure places and with imaginative names…60% of the houses are vacant. You can make out when you see no clohtes hanging out to dry in the day, no lights switched on at night.
3. The infrastructure (traffic, roads, water, electricity, pollution etc) sucks.
4. Things have become terribly expensive (not just petrol but school fees for the kids too).
5. Salary hikes (if they are occuring) are meagre compared to costs.
6. My stocks, mutual funds and FDs are all giving negative returns.
7. A 70,00,000/- flat gets you a rent of 15,000/- pm in Delhi. That’s 2.6% per annum as per my calculator if you’re not paying taxes. Will it double to become 1,40,00,000 in six years? I doubt it. If it does, who will buy it? Moreover, who will buy thousands of such houses in each city?
8. I don’t see any NRIs who have returned back in my city to live in those 1 Crore flats. All one meets is people migrating abroad.
If this appears normal to some of you, I have nothing more to say. If this is what most of you feel like…I think we’ve reached the edge of the cliff.
The “Black Money” factor is one very important factor in the Indian scenario.
As we all know, the actual price paid for a house is 50% (or more) underhand and paid in cash.
This firstly makes the banks secure. Unlike the US, people can’t just walk away from their home loans regardless of how high the interest rate or how worthless the property coz for a 50 Lac loan they’ve got their own 50 Lac of black money stuck.
Secondly, this will slow down the bubble’s bursting. Obviously people will hold on to the straws till they absolutely drown.
Thirdly, I think gradually as demand plummets and the appreciation vanishes – we will have many people drowning due to an increasing loan repayment burden, higher costs of living (courtesy inflation, oil) plus a lack of buyers on whom they can offload this (non performing) asset.
For those who sink…it will be a life’s savings lost. Much worser then the US considering you lose all your black money too and nobody cares about that coz its not there to be seen!
For those who survive…still negative or zero returns on the 1 Crore 3 BHK.
I beg to disagree, lol. Very soon we’ll be asking “How Far Can Indian Real Estate Market FALL!!”
Just wait a while for the neta-builder-banker mafia to self-destruct. Then we’ll have out own subripme!
Fedup2 – its a social fallout happening all around us which each inelligent Indian must see….but the world today is essentially about being morally bankrupt short term pleasure seekers. You’re either one of them or else you don’t exist.
But there always is a huge silent majority like us which stays sensible but gets ignored till the streets start burning. That’s history and it repeats itself. Relax…..and wait for the tables to turn.
Till that happens…one way is to try and become an unpopular reformist / odd one out….other is to be sensible and guard our ass by not blindly falling for the hype that surrounds us. The second one is easily done.
I have been following the real estate forums intently.
Few collated truths in point form below……………
1. Prices are artificial (never thought Gurgaon/Pune will be as expensive as US/UK)
2. Only a miniscule 1 or 2% of the population can afford these houses.
3. Those who get caught in this trap and buy a 50 Lac pigeonhole on the city fringes are consigned to a life of endless EMIs. Maybe we’ll soon have the Japanese model wherein you can pass it on to the kids coz the extended repayment periods (courtesy rising interests) will outlive you.
4. Appreciation is over if you buy now. If you think your 50 Lac thing on the outskirts with no proper road and water/sevage/security is going to become more expensive then a mediterranean villa in 5 years….it will be a miracle. Yes….anything can happen in India. When you have a large population, you also have a proportionatly large number of fools.
5. You can’t get a loan / tax rebate for paying rent. You got to pay it out of your salary. So rents will continue to be a paltry few thousand, even if your 2BHK is of half a crore or two crore or ten crore.
And a few truthful fantasies in continuation……………
6. How many houses will an NRI / Businessman / IT Professional Buy want to buy? Two, Three, Five….maybe Seven?? When all those many houses are constructed and sold (and these many are being built all around us)….but what then? Will we have ghost towns? Empty townships with no residents but empty 1.5 BHKs worth 1 crore each?
7. Has anyone thought about socio-economic fallouts? Middle class salaried families turning naxalites? When you can’t even buy a decent house when the economy is booming, would you not want social justice?
8. A long term cycle like Nepal? A revolution?
Dave,
Ur words are thought provoking.I have thinking in those lines too…to be more specific:
I had this li’l chat with an auto driver..he says..”it’s becoming increasingly difficult day by day to raise kids,provide good education,and to eat good food with the prices going too high…there’s no point of buying a house!!”and…”wait n see saab ….today’s youth would turn terrorists soon since they would’t ge`t “what they want with the money that they can ethically earn!!
serious burning issue!
Agree with you Fedup.
Have been trying to read a lot about who actually is buying these houses? I think I am one of those oft quoted middle class (an annual income of about 5 Lacs) that is supposedly driving this boom. But fact is I haven’t bought a house yet. Some hard facts which steeled my decision were:-
1. Upto mid 2007 – I had stayed for 5 years in Delhi in a centrally located place (Vikas Puri), paid a rent of Rs 5,500/- per month for a 2 BHK with abudant parking space and facing a big park. The house owner proudly claimed its market value was about 1.5 Crores (must be 3.5 Crores now!) Surely a very poor return for money he got. But then this man had bought it way back in 1980 for less then 10 Lacs.
2. I booked a “builder floor†in Delhi around early 2006. The builder was into buying houses, demolishing them and rebuilding into floors. I booked the first floor of a 4 storey construction (90 Sq Yd) for 16.5 Lacs in Uttam Nagar. This was in mid 2006. Then the boom accelerated by end 2006…they said it was now worth 25 Lacs. The builder got greedy, slowed construction and all the related tricks. I finally took his offer to take double my deposit and quit. The house still isn’t sold. Its mid 2008. The builder is bankrupt and has fled. The story is repeating in the entire area.
3. I came to Pune. The traffic was horrible, the pollution worser, the cost of everything was three times what it was in Delhi starting from fruits to furniture. The houses were also as expensive! Far flung outskirts, no electricity or water….but lot of nice morphed photos and glossy brochures…and the usual promise of once in a lifetime investment opportunity. Everyone said it was the IT.
4. Then I met an IT graduate (the city is called the Oxford of the East)…this guy told me that offer letters handed out after Campus interviews had joining dates six months later and very few got actual confirmations. Half the guys didn’t even get interviewed. Some smaller institutes didn’t even get visited by the industry. Also, this was in sharp contrast to last year when almost everyone got a job. So it isn’t the IT anymore!
5. Lastly, I went to a small town in MP. This one was untouched by builders. An empty 200 Sq Mtr plot with a tube well (at least ground water supply assured), stable electricity supply and in a well developed area on the outskirts was quoting for Rs 75,000/-. The airport at Bhopal was 20 Kms away, the railway station the same. That was what I used to travel in Delhi or Pune too! The vegetables and fruits were half the price in Delhi and one quarter the price in Pune. Full time domestic help was available in plenty at as low as Rs 1000/- pm. The schools were roughly the same standard but charged one tenth what similar schools charged in Delhi and Pune.
What did I conclude? Stay on rent in a big city while you work (remember Delhi @ Rs 5,500/- ….and dropping). Build yourself a nice palatial bungalow in a small town and relax there once you retire. The amentities (hospitals etc) are still as closeby as in a metro or worst case you can fly down to Delhi for Rs 3,000/-.
Compare that with buying a 1 Crore designer flat adjacent to a slum (or a suburb 60 Kms away from city centre) and paying all your salary as EMI all your life.
Bottomline is…..either it crashes, else I am not buying!!
Thanks to Dave…since i was also feeling the same way!
More than the IT guys, I see politicians and businessmen have contributed much for the boom!
It is only their black money that has been invested in land and flats!
All the money that they had kept idle is now in land or flats and now it’d b all white if they want to sell it off!
I heard from my friends abroad that they spot lots of ‘India Property Fair’happening there! For these NRIs it’s little money and they see it as an investment!!
Govt wud do nothing to stop this and buying a home would be a dream to people like me!
I accuse 1.The Politicians/businessmen who have invested their black money in real estate(u can spot ads stating that worth of property is 1.5 Cr..Cash parties wc)2.NRIs and 3.Govt.
Why can’t the income Tax dept take a list of all non-salaried who’ve bought land/house/flat in the last 4-5 yrs and check …..recover all black money…I am sure India would become a rich country after that :)
Yes – just recently there have been a lot of hoardings which I had seen 6 months earlier too. And you are right – the way these areas in the wilderness (latest being Talegaon!!) are being touted as the nxet best thing to Miami is soooooooo stupid.
I stay in Pune…it takes more then 3 hours to reach Talegaon from the railway station / airport, over 80 Kms away. The taxi guy is going to ask you some astronomical sum like 1000 bucks. Its closer to Lonavala then to Pune. When I have to travel there – it means a whole day.
But as per the builders….it is the latest happening hotspot dying to be developed. Add to that the revelation that it has the best climate in Maharashtra (thank god they didn’t say India!).
I’ve just learnt to be patient….let these builders perish of their own greed.
Ohh!! You cannot imagine the happiness I get when I still see the advertisements of projects I used to visit some 6-7 months back..
These builders have tortured common people like me for very long.. and now I can see that they are desparate to sell off the vacant flats..
Me and my friends still enquire to many builders on a regular basis and its a common knowledge that no-one is willing to buy a pigeon hole which will leak in rainy season and which is 20 kms from heart of the city..
I always wondered , how these builders could shamelessly ask for 35-40 lakhs for flats which looked like chawls and not even worth 10 lakhs..
well , its pay back time..
3 weeks back , PBAP increased rates in Pune by 5- – 400 rs PSF..
Thatwas the last attempt to tell the world that Pune property is still rising..
What a fiasco..
Some people might have been lured to buy flats , because of this new rate increase..
PEOPLE , dont fall trap to this new game from builders lobby.. there is no hurry to buy flats which are being sold at twice their actual price..
The current market sentiment has confirmed that a correction was long due in real estate as well as stock.
I know for sure that real estate is 20-30 % low in Delhi and bangalore.
I am waiting for a correction in Pune real estate for last 1 year.. ( 2BHK in Wakad at 40 lakhs , 2 BHK in Kharadi at 38 Lakhs.. are you kidding me ?? what do these builders think .. if this is california outskirts ?? )
I also got confirmed news , that in a recent meeting of PBAP , they decided to boycott any builder who reduces rates..
but then , well there was Mont Vert who does not belong to that league.. after reducing the rates for their upcoming projects last week end, Mont Vert has started the downfall of these greedy builders at last..
this could well be the start of the buyers market.. and I think the downfall in real estates will happen over next 1 year..
But then , my question is “How do you know when is the right time to buy? ”
Do I wait another few months?
I know for sure that second hand flats in good areas are being sold at a bargain..
So what should be the best time for all of us to book a good flat in coming months / years :-)
Suggestions and comments are welcome..
Hi,
I also waited and waited and now buying a flat is next to impossible for a person like that of mine who’s earning more than 70k pm.when I look out for a flat within 40L i end up seeing old flats with bad surroundings!Hmmm..and i also believe that I will not have cash in my hand for all other expenses and savings if I go for a flat now.For someone who buys a flat for 50 k too the rent he can expect would be 15-25k and that’s it to the max.and i see no logic in buying a flat for investement purpose if at all you are gonna sell.All that people like me can do is to pray that all politicians and rich guys and mediators whowere behind this stupid boom to go to hell.
Here in gurgaon the price of real estate is sky rocketing every one is trying their hands on gurgaon real estate market since it is also a very booming real estate market in india.
PBAP has increased rates by rs 400..This is a last attempt by Pune builders lobby to sell vacant flats.and instead of being rational , they have taken a ridiculous decision. Its time that a common investor in Pune awakens and stops buying flats from these selfish builders. The current rates are out of scope for the genuine buyer and with this new move , its going to be out of wven the dreams of anyone..as Atul said , let the prices increase at a fast pace , so that the bubble burst is steep and soon..what do these builders think , that everyone ( including the IT people ) are super-rich? if I pay 40,000 as EMI , there is nothing left to spend for daily survival. I see a lot of empty flats around Pune , and so the builder lobby is desperate to sell them off, so that it can finance their existing constructions.. but if no-one buys these flats , they will be choked.. pass on the message to everyone you know , to not buy flats in Pune..let the builders choke for a while..lets burst the bubble.
Hi ,
I am a supporter for people getting good returns on the property they have invested in.. but the current scenario is :
1)Every new construction prices automatically become 3000 due to speculative buying(even though they are far away)
2)The resale flats also start quoting the same rate
3)The quality of new constructions is not so good
4)The builders start increasing the rates by 200 every month and the rates in the vicinity start shooting up.
5)The rates 1 km away from this place now touch 3000.
So now , all the flats in the first area are bough by people who actually dont stay there or by people who somehow take a loan of 30lakhs and start paying an EMI of 30K per month for the next 20 years.
And thats where my question starts:
Are these the correct rates for these areas?I will not contest Koregaon or FC road rates in Pune. They are in heart of Pune.
But what about Far-away Aundh , Baner , Kharadi?
I see many flats bought on speculation and lying empty..And new constructions are seen everywhere..
This is how I support my demand and supply equation.
The demand is huge..But the price is sooo high that no-one is ready to buy these flats.. As such the only solution is to correct the prices and then balance the equation.
comments are welcome.
THE real estate market in India is on a high growth curve, on the back of a booming economy, favourable demographics and liberalised FDI regime, although issues such as lack of land reforms, and absence of substantial tax incentive for real estate development still need to be addressed.Once the Government puts into place land reforms and addresses the challenges facing the real estate sector, this sector has the potential to contribute immensely to the country’s GDP.The growth rate in terms of investment and returns has been a sustained 25% to 30%. The expansion plans have given rise to 269 other industries related to real estate like finance and banking, mortgage, insurance etc.NRI s are of the opinion that real estate India has not been tapped to even 20% of the real estate market. When global companies like Goldman Sachs invests $68 milliion in housing projects in India the market definitely looks hopeful for other domestic players like DLF, Unitech, Omaxe, JMD, Sahara etc. Scope of expansion exists to more than 30 to 35 cities all across India where the population is 1 million.For more view-realtydigest.blogspot.com
there seems to be a correction in real estate.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2612813.cms
Is that economic growth with “Social Justice�
While Prominent Builders are competing with each other in offering Luxurious Villas & Apartments with a price tag ranging 50 lacs to 2.5 crores and above leaving no scope for a common man to even own a simple shelter, as the uncontrolled land prices are much beyond his means
After the recent news by times of india 2 days back stating the woofing deal made in Mumbai .this country’s largest-ever residential transaction on record was completed when a four-bedroom flat at NCPA Apartments at the Nariman Point end of Marine Drive fetched a gravity-defying price of Rs 97,842 per square foot, or Rs 34 crore. The plush pad is located on the seventh floor and was put up for sale early this month by its owner.Can any one predict the future of the market if this kind of deals will take place then what will happen??
check out more stuff on Indian Real Estate @ http://www.realtydigest.blogspot.com
I have been waiting for more than a year hoping prices will come down, but it has not happed so far rather the rate has been gone up by 400 – 500 per sq. ft. So I don’think rate will come down. And don’t forget that only US Dollar is not getting invested in Indian real estate and dollar down will not affect on Indian real estate that much as middle east is also playing a major role in it.
Nikhil…Very good point made…Black money is changing hands like nobody’s business especially in Real Estate. One of my friends recently bought a flat…and 50% of the value was paid in black…Think about it…25 lac on paper, but double being the actual price…
Srinireddy,
I agree with you, Rupee-Dollar is having a huge effect…especially to IT professionals. This cycle that you mentioned works both ways, positive or negative…
and I would not think twice for the last line that you mentioned……
DO NOT THINK ABOUT COMING TO US….hordes of people are moving back to India…it is the palce of opportunity and money….don’t think !!!
Now a days everthing revolves around rupee-dollar…appreciation or depreciation.
For example if you take an IT professional or an NRI ,if the dollara value came down then..against rupee..he may not get good hike..in turn..he may not able to afford to buy a house in turn the house rates will come down,in turn real estae business will fall down.
I am holding H1 and not able to decide whether to go US or Not…Lets c ,Dollar or rupee decides…
i totally agree with your logic given behind the upsurge in the Indian real estate market i would like to state here one more and a very crucial reason behind this boom which is the increase in black money in the market.Huge amounts of black money has been pushed to sectors like real estate. And now a lot of money/surplus has been an impetus for prices in the real estate sector to rise. Even though the price could be paid in cash as in the market value of the property, in order to avoid taxes on stamp paper or other govt levied taxes one would deal in black money, ergo fueling the demand for “hot” real estate properties.
What’s your take on this?
Don’t get carried away by the real estate prices. Only those prices sustain which people can afford and it is related with their income. Understand that real estate is first to get hit in economic slowdown. Due to appreciation of rupee, IT will be in deep troubles and it will clear in the future that India is very much dependent on US market. So government should encourage cheap housing for middle and lower class.
Thanks Ravi…Would be interested in knowing what is your take on this. You are closely associated with Real Estate market.
“Looking at all the macro reasons stated above, I doubt that this Indian real estate market will slowdown anytime in near future.” Good closing! I enjoyed your post. Your head line is attractive. It made me forget i am the part of real estate and compel me to read you.
Yeah….these stories can be heard everywhere…Infact, just today I was talking to a friend of mine. He made a land investment in Mysore for some Rs. 800 per square feet 6 months back. Today the price of that land is in the range of Rs. 1500 per sq ft. Isn’t that amazing!!!!
Real-estate market in India has grown very fast. My parents brought a flat in Vadodra 2 years ago for around 15lakhs and now they are getting an offer for almost 25 lakhs. That really good turn around.
Here in UK, we see advert in news paper about seminars for property investment in India. The prices there are not hitting roof high. But on the other hand its getting hard for local people to buy a house as the prices are so high
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You have explained a real stoy of india real estate…one thing i would like to mention here is that india politician also playing games in land acquisition such special economic zone….
I really appriciate that india have palyed goog knock at international level but t the same time we are loosing our agricultural grow.
I think we all need to disscu on these issues.
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