Amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic has taken a backseat, as the number of active positive cases in the country is receding.
That being said, an IIT Kanpur study, which is yet to receive a proper review/nod from peers suggests that the fourth wave of the pandemic could break out in India starting June 22 and last for 4 months until October 2022.
The researchers of the deemed university have used a statistical model to predict the upcoming fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
IIT Kanpur Researchers Predict Dates for 4th Covid-19 Wave in India
As per research conducted by the IIT Kanpur researchers, led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur’s Mathematics department, the next wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, that is the fourth wave is set to start on June 22, 2022 and last for four months, until October 2022.
They have made these predictions using a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe, stated a PTI report.
The study shows that the severity of the next wave will depend upon various factors, including the emergence of a probable new coronavirus variant, the vaccination status of individuals across the country and the virulence and infectability of the variant, among other things.
It has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv, added the report.
“The data indicates that the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020,” stated the study’s authors.
Thus, the fourth wave is expected to start from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and end on October 24, 2022.
Besides, the authors also added that the effect of vaccinations, the first, second or booster dosage may also play a significant role on the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various issues related to the fourth wave.
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