IIT Study: Omicron Variant Will Trigger 3rd Wave; Peak Likely By January-End

A group of researchers at the IIT Kanpur have conducted a modelling study, and it states that the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will peak by February 3, 2022.

The researchers have used data from countries such as the US, UK, Germany, and Russia that are already dealing with the third wave of the Covid-19.

Researchers Of IIT Kanpur Predict Third Wave Of COVID-19 Virus

The research team consists of Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh, who all belong to the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at IIT Kanpur.

They have predicted that the third wave of the virus will peak by Feb 3, 2022. This prediction is based on the assumption that India will follow the trends of the rise in the cases that have been seen in many countries globally driven by the Omicron variant of coronavirus. 

This study hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet and has used a statistical tool named the Gaussian Mixture model to forecast the third wave. It has been published on the preprint repository MedRxiv on December 21.

As per the researchers, “The cases start rising around 15 December 2021 and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, 3 February 2022. So, India and other countries have to build up the defences and be prepared for another wave so that it is not as devastating as the earlier ones.”

National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee Confirms Third Wave

The daily data of cases in the US, UK, Germany, and Russia has been modelled for an estimation of the impact and timeline for the third wave in India. It has also used the data from the first and second waves in India, and the number of cases with respect to time have been considered.

According to members of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee, there will be definitely a third wave of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in India once the Omicron variant starts replacing Delta as the dominant strain.

As per Mr. Vidyasagar, the head of the Covid Supermodel panel, the third wave, driven by Omicron, is likely to arrive early next year and peak in February.

According to him, India witnessing more daily infection than the second Covid wave is “extremely unlikely”. Citing the seroprevalence data in India, the IIT professor further stated only a tiny fraction of the public has not come into contact with the coronavirus.