Indian Medical Association of Andhra Pradesh has predicted that the fourth wave of the pandemic could be triggered by stealth omicron, a new subvariant of omicron.
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Ravaging UK, China
This subvariant is said to be more contagious than Omicron and it is already the dominant strain in the UK.
China’s recent surge in cases, the highest since the pandemic broke out, has also been attributed to the new variant.
Also known as BA.2 or “Stealth Omicron”, it was discovered in December.
More Infectious, Harder To Detect
Denmark’s Statens Serum Institut (SSI) calculated that it could be 1.5 times more infectious than its predecessor.
It is also harder to detect since it misses key mutations in spike protein which rapid PCR tests use to identify the infection.
Does Not Affect Lungs
There is some good news: it has been proven that reinfection with BA.2 following infection with BA.1 provides stronger protection against reinfection with BA.2.
WHO said that this variant mainly affects the upper respiratory tract, but not the lungs.
Therefore patients infected with this variant do not experience shortness of breath, loss of smell and taste.
Symptoms
Some of the early symptoms are reported to be dizziness and extreme fatigue.
These symptoms will likely appear within 2-3 days after being infected.
Other symptoms may include fever, coughing, sore throat, sore hand, muscular fatigue, cold, and elevated heart rate.
The IMA advised people to keep wearing masks and follow Covid appropriate behaviour.
Hospitalisation Risk Not Higher
IMA AP president Dr C Srinivasa Raju said that epidemiologists doubt that BA.2 will drive a massive surge.
He said that British researchers have found no higher risk of hospitalisation with the new variant than its predecessor.
All versions of Omicron are highly contagious, which is why the variant swiftly edged out earlier forms of the coronavirus, he added.
Five-Fold Strategy
Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan wrote to all additional chief secretaries, principal secretaries, and secretaries of (Health) of all States and UTs that there should be a continued focus on the five-fold strategy.
It goes: Test-Track-Treat-Vaccination-Adherence to Covid-appropriate behaviour.
WHO posited the reason behind this surge to be a combination of the highly transmissible Omicron variant and its BA.2 sublineage and the easing of Covid restrictions.
Fourth Wave In India
IIT Kanpur’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics had said in a modelling study that the 4th wave in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August 2022.
It found the new wave to last 4 months.
Another study the institute carried out found that 2 factors contributing to the spread are contact rate and fraction of susceptible population.
The higher either factor is, the faster the spread of virus.
The 2 factors together determined about 80% of the speed at which Delta wave spread.
The study found little scientific basis in forcing those with past infection to get vaccinated.
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