Whenever I discuss anything about India, people site excessive population as the core cause of almost all the issues faced by Indians. I always try to make a case as to why I think having a huge population might work for our benefit if its potential is utilized effectively.
Let’s see how we match upto China and US, the other top countries in terms of population.
Contents
Population: India, China and U.S.A comparison
|
|
INDIA
|
CHINA
|
US
|
|
Population
|
1.180 bil
|
1.337 bil
|
310 mil
|
|
Rank |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
growth rate |
1.38% |
0.49% |
0.97% |
|
Age structure
|
|
|
|
|
0-14 years |
30.1% |
18.9% |
20.1% |
|
15-64 years |
64.6% |
73.4% |
66.9% |
|
65+ years |
5.3% |
8.6% |
13.0% |
|
Median age
|
25.9
|
35.2
|
36.8
|
|
Urbanization
|
29.0%
|
43.0%
|
82.0%
|
|
rate of urbanization |
2.4% |
2.7% |
1.3% |
|
Literacy (15+ R/W)
|
61.0% |
90.9% |
99.0% |
|
GDP(PPP)
|
$3.56 tril |
$8.789 tril |
$14.26 tril |
|
Rank |
4 |
2 |
1 |
|
GDP(growth rate 2009)
|
6.5% |
8.7% |
-2.4% |
|
Rank |
12 |
4 |
151 |
|
Below-poverty-line
|
25% |
3% |
12% |
Source: Various research reports and publications
Consumer Base:
One of the advantages of having a large population means huge consumer base. With approx. 1.180 billion consumers almost all the multinational companies are looking to tap on India’s population. The telecom sector is the biggest example of consumer’s growth.
India added one French wireless market last quarter or one Canadian market every month in last quarter. Imagine what would have happen with a relatively small population?
Growth in Urbanization:
Because of a huge population we still are in growing mode, that would mean still a lot of our population have to be urbanized. In rate-measures, India is catching up with China although only 30% of our population is urbanized.
One might wonder why urbanization is a good thing for India.
Picture these predictions made by McKinsey for India’s urbanization by 2030:-
- 600 million people will live in cities
- 70% of net new employment will be required in cities
- $1.2 trillion capital investments necessary to meet projected demands in Indian cities
- 900 mil sq. met. of commercial and residential space (that’s like 1 Chicago every year!!!)
- 7400 km of metros and subways will be constructed
Young Working Population
Unlike many other countries that are grappling with aging population and rising dependency ratios, India has a young and rapidly growing population in the world. That would translate into more additional workforce per year. To put into perspective with China, India will add more than thrice the workforce at a growth rate of 1.6% per annum by 2025.
There are numerous other merits which I may list but you get the point. Why am I emphasizing on the merits is because hopefully we will begin to see that mismanagement of population and not the population is the problem.
Indian government should step up and utilize our population and see it as a potential demographic dividend.
Thoughts?