SBI Research, on India’s Independence Day on August 15, 2023, projected a remarkable 85.3 percent increase in the number of individuals filing income tax returns, reaching 482 million by FY2047. This anticipated surge in tax filings is expected to propel India into the coveted category of middle-income economies. Correspondingly, a rise in the number of taxpayers falling into higher income tax brackets is foreseen. The report anticipates that approximately 25 percent of Income Tax Return (ITR) filers will transition out of the lowest income category by FY47, with per capita income surging to Rs 14.9 lakh.
Income Tax Landscape in India: A Decade of Growth and Transformation
In AY2011-12, a total of 16 million people filed ITRs, with 84 percent falling within the Rs 5 lakh income bracket. Fast-forward to AY23, and 68.5 million individuals filed ITRs, with the proportion in the Rs 5 lakh income category dropping to 64 percent. The SBI report highlights that 13.6 percent of the population has successfully moved out of the lower-income strata.
Furthermore, per capita income, the yearly earnings of an average Indian, is projected to soar from Rs 2 lakh in FY23 to Rs 14.9 lakh by FY47. Over the past nine years, the weighted mean income has surged from Rs 4.4 lakh (AY14) to Rs 13 lakh (AY23). This remarkable increase is attributed to individuals moving from lower to higher income groups and an increased number of tax filers reporting income. The study predicts the mean income to reach Rs 49.7 lakh by 2047 for the same reasons.
In AY23, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and West Bengal emerged as the top five states for tax filing, collectively accounting for nearly 48 percent of total returns. Overall, there was an additional 64 lakh ITRs filed in AY23 compared to AY22, with the most significant increase occurring in Maharashtra.
Transforming India’s Tax Landscape: Trends in ITR Filing, Workforce Growth, and Efficiency
The report also suggests the need for better tracking of inter-state migration in ITR returns to facilitate improved policy narratives. Additionally, it forecasts India’s workforce to expand from 530 million in FY23 to 725 million in FY47, accounting for 45 percent of the population.
The report notes an evident increase in discipline in ITR filing, with an estimated 85 million returns anticipated by AY24. The percentage of returns filed after the due date has significantly reduced from 60 percent in AY20 to just 25 percent in AY23. This shift is attributed to simplified forms and user-friendly digital processes implemented by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT).
Moreover, the report reveals that 42 percent of taxpayers filed ITR-1, primarily individuals with incomes up to Rs 50 lakh, including salary, pension, and a single house property. The percentage of zero tax liability filers saw a substantial decline, dropping from 84.1 percent in AY12 to 64 percent in AY23.
Additionally, the report highlights that more tax returns are being processed promptly by the Income Tax Department. In AY 2022, only around half were processed on time, but in AY 24, 64 percent of filed returns were processed by the due date. Also, returns processed (43 million) as a percentage of verified returns (60 million) stood at a high level of 72 percent in AY24, according to the report.
