India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) data. The shift marks a significant change in India’s demographic trajectory after decades of declining fertility.
The latest SRS Statistical Report, covering 2024, was released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Fertility Has Fallen Sharply Over Five Decades
India’s fertility rate has declined dramatically from previous decades. The TFR stood at around 5.2 during 1971–81, fell to 3.6 in 1991 and has now reached 1.9.
The replacement level of 2.1 represents the approximate fertility rate needed for one generation to replace itself over the long term, assuming no migration. A sustained rate below this level eventually contributes to population ageing and, later, population decline.
However, India’s population will not begin shrinking immediately because of demographic momentum. The country’s large existing young population will continue to support population growth for some time.
Rural and Urban India Show a Wide Gap
The national figure hides a significant difference between rural and urban areas.
In 2024, India’s rural TFR was 2.1, exactly at replacement level, while the urban TFR was just 1.5.
The decline has been particularly pronounced in cities, where factors such as later marriage, higher education, changing family preferences and the cost of raising children have contributed to smaller family sizes.
Bihar Has Highest, Delhi Lowest Fertility
Fertility also varies substantially across states.
Bihar recorded the highest TFR at 2.9, while Delhi had the lowest at 1.2. Several southern and western states have remained below replacement fertility for years.
Maharashtra’s TFR, for example, stood at around 1.4, while states including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh also recorded fertility rates well below 2.1.
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has noted that excluding Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India’s TFR falls to around 1.6, highlighting the country’s growing regional demographic divide.
What Lower Fertility Means for India
The decline could eventually reshape India’s workforce, economy and social structure. Fewer births mean that the number of young people entering the workforce will eventually slow, while the proportion of older people will rise.
This creates a need for greater productivity, skills development, healthcare and elderly-care infrastructure as India’s demographic profile changes.
The transition is also occurring while India is still considerably less wealthy than countries that experienced similar ageing trends, making employment generation and economic growth particularly important.
Summary
India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the 2024 SRS report. Rural fertility remains at 2.1, while urban fertility has fallen to 1.5. Bihar has the highest rate at 2.9 and Delhi the lowest at 1.2, highlighting India’s widening regional demographic divide.
