The Trump administration is developing a new rule to introduce a ‘weighted selection process’ for H-1B cap visas.
In this process, weights would likely be based on the salary offered to the foreign national being sponsored by a U.S. employer.
Trump Administration Proposes Salary-Based Weighted Lottery for H-1B Visas
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has already submitted this proposed rule to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), which reviews new rules before they’re published.
Once reviewed by OIRA, the rule will be published in the Federal Register, initiating the implementation process.
The rule’s finalization will take several months, as it includes a period for public comments and subsequent review.
Former DHS official Doug Rand said, “But they are moving fast, so that could happen within the calendar year.”
In January 2021, just before the Biden administration took office, a similar wage-based selection system was introduced to replace the previous random lottery.
That system prioritized H-1B allocations based on wage levels, favoring those offered the highest salaries first: starting from Level 4 (most experienced) down to Level 1, until the annual cap of 85,000 visas was met.
The Biden administration froze this rule and it was later nullified by a court.
The revived Trump proposal may closely resemble the 2021 wage-based model.
Rand noted, “When the US Congress established the H-1B program in 1990 as a temporary work visa for professionals in ‘specialty occupations’, many of today’s occupations didn’t exist.”
There are only 85,000 H-1B cap slots available per year, yet demand is 4-5 times higher, according to Rand.
Indians Dominate H-1B Visas in 2023, Far Outpacing Chinese Applicants
Indian nationals are the largest beneficiaries of H-1B visas.
For the fiscal year ending September 2023, Indians received 68,825 (58%) of the initial H-1B employment visas and 2.10 lakh (79%) of the extensions.
In contrast, Chinese nationals, the second-largest group, received 16,094 initial and 29,250 extension H-1B visas.
Therefore, any major change in the H-1B selection system would disproportionately affect Indian applicants.
Rand distinguished between long-term H-1B employers (like MNCs, startups, small businesses, and community hospitals) and short-term ones, including some unscrupulous staffing firms.
Rand warned, “Heedless of this distinction, the Trump administration is about to (re)attempt a major change to the H-1B lottery.”
He added, “It sounds reasonable at first to allocate scarce H-1Bs to the highest-paid workers in each occupation. But, this would be disastrous in practice.”
While higher wages might drive out low-quality employers, Rand emphasized that long-term employers often hire early-career professionals, such as researchers, engineers, and doctors, who are fresh out of U.S. grad schools.
These entry-level professionals may be well-paid but usually don’t fall in the highest wage tiers, and thus, would be excluded from the lottery.
Education experts noted that international students on Optional Practical Training (OPT)—especially those in STEM fields with 3-year OPTs—are generally hired at entry-level salaries.
Imposing wage-based selection would make it harder for companies to hire them.
Immigration lawyers believe the proposed rule would harm sectors like healthcare, scientific research, and hospital staffing, which rely on early-career foreign talent.
