Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that his tariffs do not financially hurt American consumers, yet new findings suggest households will feel a noticeable impact, marking what researchers describe as the biggest tax hike in decades.
A recent report by the Tax Foundation estimates that the typical U.S. household will pay about $1,300 more in 2026 because of these tariffs, compared with an added $1,000 in 2025.
Trump’s Tariffs Projected to Raise Household Costs, Marking Largest Tax Increase in Decades
The tariff program began last April and introduced “reciprocal” duties on dozens of nations, including major partners such as China and the European Union, along with a blanket 10% charge on all imports.
Since their launch, the measures have been postponed, withdrawn, reinstated, and expanded, creating instability in trade policy.
Researchers found that the average effective tariff on U.S. imports has climbed to 9.9%, the highest level recorded since 1946.
The study states, “The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP (0.54 percent for 2026) since 1993.”
Analysts project that the tariffs will shrink GDP by 0.5%.
The policy brought in $132 billion in revenue last year and could raise roughly $2 trillion over ten years if foreign retaliation is ignored; when accounting for economic downsides, that estimate drops to $1.6 trillion.
Tariffs Could Undermine Gains From “Big, Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
The report suggests the tariffs may cancel out some economic benefits tied to Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” tax cuts without generating enough revenue to compensate.
It concludes, “Historical evidence and recent studies show that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers, resulting in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.”
The White House rejected these conclusions. Spokesperson Kush Desai told The Independent, “The average American tariff has increased nearly sevenfold in the past year, while inflation cooled, real wages increased, and economic growth accelerated – the exact opposite of what the ‘experts’ said would happen… President Trump was right and the Panican experts were wrong.”
Many Democrats and some Republicans have criticized the tariffs. Senator Chris Coons warned, “It’s the largest tax increase on working Americans in a long time… President Trump is making America expensive again.”
Public opinion appears skeptical. A February survey from the Pew Research Center found that 60% of Americans disapprove of the higher tariffs, while 37% approve.
The U.S. Supreme Court is preparing to decide whether the president has the authority to impose such tariffs alone, though no timeline has been given.
Trump has cautioned that if the Court rules against him, the country will be “SCREWED!”
