According to a forthcoming paper by economists from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute, Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies may be the primary cause of the United States experiencing negative immigration in 2025—more people leaving than arriving—for the first time in more than 50 years, as reported by The Washington Post.
A decrease in new arrivals and an increase in deportations are the main causes of this anticipated net decline in immigration.
U.S. Faces First Negative Immigration in 50 Years Amid Trump’s Hardline Policies, Say Economists
According to Labor Department data, the number of foreign-born workers has already decreased by more than 1 million since March due to a notable slowdown in both legal and undocumented migration.
Key industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor, such as elder care, hospitality, and agriculture, are experiencing a labor shortage as a result of the decline in immigrant workers.
Many Haitian and Cuban employees are being let go from the Toby & Leon Cooperman Sinai Residences retirement community in Florida as a result of their Temporary Protected Status being revoked.
The retirement home’s CEO, Rachel Blumberg, anticipates that labor expenses will increase by $600,000 a year, which will eventually be passed on to residents.
Ending refugee admissions, preventing entry from a dozen nations, and removing protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants are just a few of the restrictive measures the Trump administration has implemented.
Aiming to deport up to one million people, including some who entered lawfully through humanitarian initiatives during the Biden administration, the administration’s proposed budget allocates $150 billion for immigration enforcement.
A wider crackdown on legal immigration has also been indicated by actions like preventing Harvard from admitting international students and threats to cancel student visas, especially for Chinese nationals.
Visa regulations are still erratic and onerous, despite Trump’s somewhat softer stance on immigration following the advancement of trade negotiations with China.
Reduced Immigration Hits U.S. Economy: Shrinking Workforce, Lower Contributions, Rising Inflation Risks
Reduced immigration is already having an impact on the economy: lower immigration means lower Social Security and Medicare contributions, slower labor force growth, and increased inflation risks.
“It’s a recipe for higher inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, particularly in low-wage industries that are currently experiencing unexpected labor shortages.
Adriana Kugler, the governor of the Federal Reserve, acknowledged a slowdown in the labor supply but cautioned that inflationary pressure might worsen by year’s end.
Kugler also pointed out that wage growth has been slow, which suggests that even with better offers, employers are having trouble finding new hires.
Fear of deportation and uncertainty about their legal status are the main reasons why some migrants are choosing to voluntarily leave the United States.
After being refused a work permit, a Venezuelan woman who had lawfully entered under Biden’s parole program left in March, stating: “I was afraid they would catch me and my husband and the kids would be left in school.”
With a peak of almost 3 million in 2024, net migration fueled the post-pandemic economic recovery.
Negative immigration and demographic pressure may now portend a structural change in the American labor market.
According to economist Wendy Edelberg of Brookings, the nation seems on track to experience negative immigration for the first time since the 1970s, a trend that has the potential to drastically alter the political and economic landscape of the United States.
