India has saved at least $12.6 billion over the past 39 months by importing discounted Russian crude, according to an analysis of official trade data. This strategic move not only eased the country’s oil import bill but also helped stabilize global oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
How India Benefited from Russian Oil Discounts
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian crude made up less than 2% of India’s total oil imports. That figure has now surged to over one-third, as India capitalized on steep discounts offered by Moscow after Western buyers cut purchases.
In 2022-23, India’s oil import bill stood at $162.21 billion. Without discounted Russian oil, it would have been $4.87 billion higher. The savings increased to $5.41 billion in 2023-24, even though per-barrel discounts shrank, thanks to higher import volumes. However, in 2024-25, savings dropped to just $1.45 billion due to narrowing price gaps and higher freight/insurance costs under sanctions pressure.
Wider Global Price Impact
Analysts argue India’s Russian crude purchases also played a global stabilizing role. By absorbing large volumes, India helped prevent a sharp spike in world oil prices. Experts estimate that if oil prices had risen by just $10 per barrel, India’s import bill would have increased by $58 billion; at $20 per barrel, the cost could have soared by $116 billion.
Geopolitical Pressure and India’s Stance
The U.S. has expressed concerns over India’s continued Russian oil imports, especially with the Trump administration proposing new tariffs on global energy and goods. However, India has maintained that its choices are based on economic benefit and energy security, not external sanctions. Importantly, Russian oil remains under a price cap regime, not a full ban.
What If India Stops Buying Russian Oil?
Experts warn that if India halts Russian oil purchases, global crude prices could quickly climb to $90–100 per barrel. For India, this would mean an additional $11 billion annual burden on its already import-heavy economy, where 88% of oil is imported. Beyond economics, such a move could also fuel global inflation.
Strategic Autonomy and Global Leverage
India’s oil diplomacy underscores its ability to balance strategic autonomy with economic pragmatism. By reshaping trade flows, India has emerged as a key player in global energy markets, reinforcing its influence while ensuring affordable energy for its citizens.
