According to the Pew Research Center, the US immigrant population has dropped by 1.5 million between January and June 2025, the steepest fall since the 1960s. This decline brings the total immigrant population to 51.9 million, reversing decades of steady growth.
The primary driver: Donald Trump’s strict immigration policies, including mass deportations, tighter border controls, and reduced legal entry routes.
Economic Fallout – Labour Market Strain
One of the most immediate consequences is being felt in the US workforce:
- Over 750,000 fewer immigrants are part of the labour force.
- Key sectors such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare are reporting shortages.
- With limited growth in the native-born working-age population, experts warn this could slow economic expansion and productivity.
Jeffrey Passel, a Pew demographer, emphasized that immigration has been the main source of labour force growth in recent years. The contraction poses long-term risks to the US economy.
Impact on Demographics
- The unauthorised immigrant population, which peaked at 14 million in 2023, has now started to shrink rapidly.
- Stricter deportations and rollbacks of previous legal protections under Trump’s revived immigration agenda have driven the fall.
- The immigrant share of the US population fell from 15.8% in January to 15.4% in June 2025.
Shifting Origins of Immigrants
- Fewer arrivals are being recorded from Mexico and Central America.
- There’s a rising share from South America, reflecting changing migration routes.
- Texas and California remain the top immigrant states, but their immigrant numbers are becoming more balanced compared to past decades.
Global Context
Despite the drop, the US still hosts the largest number of immigrants globally in absolute terms.
However, countries like Canada and the UAE host higher proportions of immigrants relative to their populations—signaling that the US is becoming less dominant in terms of immigration share.
Discussion Point
This study raises important questions for both policymakers and the public:
- Can the US maintain economic growth with shrinking immigration?
- Will tighter policies ease domestic political tensions, or will they create new economic and demographic challenges?
- Could industries reliant on immigrant labour push back and demand policy adjustments?
