India’s dominance in the H1B visa programme is being challenged like never before. Official US data shows approvals for Indian applicants plunged from nearly one lakh in early 2023 to 63,323 in 2025—a contraction of almost 37% in just two years. The slide began during former President Joe Biden’s final year in office, underlining a broader structural slowdown.
India Remains Biggest Beneficiary—and Loser
Indians still account for the lion’s share of H1B visas, but the losses are mounting. China too saw approvals dip by 27% in 2025, though its two-year fall was modest at just 3%. Meanwhile, other countries are gaining: Vietnam recorded a 42% rise, Brazil 27%, and Mexico 21%. Even Bangladesh and Pakistan posted positive growth in approvals.
Global H1B Route Shrinks
The contraction is not limited to India. Global approvals dropped 20% in 2024 and another 11% in 2025, reflecting tighter scrutiny and softer corporate demand. This is a sharp contrast with Trump’s first term (2017–2020), when Indians averaged nearly 74% of total approvals, the highest share in over a decade.
Indian IT Giants Face Higher Costs
For outsourcing leaders like TCS, Infosys, and Cognizant, which have collectively secured hundreds of thousands of H1B approvals over the last decade, Trump’s $100,000 annual fee represents a serious challenge. Onsite staffing costs in the US are set to rise sharply, accelerating a pivot toward local recruitment, remote delivery, and near-shore hubs to serve American clients.
A Strain on US–India Ties
The squeeze also reflects the changing contours of US–India relations. While Washington continues to engage New Delhi as a strategic partner, traditional people-to-people channels are narrowing. Even US tourist visas for Indians have seen recent declines, pointing to wider headwinds for both leisure and labour mobility.
Outlook
For India’s IT sector, the new visa regime is both a shock and a catalyst. As costs soar and approvals shrink, companies may be forced to reinvent their global workforce strategies. The once-reliable H1B route is no longer a guarantee.
