India Faces A Second Weather Challenge
India’s weather troubles may not end with the monsoon. A strengthening El Nino is now raising concerns about the country’s winter season, with scientists warning that 2026-27 could bring warmer-than-normal temperatures and unusual rainfall patterns across several regions.
The concern comes after India’s southwest monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit, leaving several areas facing depleted water reserves and agricultural losses.
El Nino Expected To Strengthen Further
El Nino is a climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures become unusually warm across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation can influence weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
India’s meteorological authorities expect the current El Nino to strengthen further during the final months of 2026. Government assessments indicate that the event could continue into early 2027.
That makes the coming winter particularly important for farmers and water managers.
Winter Could Be Warmer Than Normal
One of the strongest signals associated with major El Nino events is a tendency towards warmer winter conditions in parts of India.
The 2015-16 winter provides a notable example. A strong El Nino followed a severely deficient monsoon, while several parts of India subsequently experienced unusually high temperatures during December and January.
A warmer winter could affect the amount of cold required by crops such as wheat and other Rabi crops. The timing and intensity of temperature changes therefore matter significantly for agricultural productivity.
But El Nino Does Not Mean A Dry Winter Everywhere
There is an important complication.
El Nino does not automatically mean that all of India will experience a dry winter.
Northwestern India receives much of its winter rainfall from western disturbances, weather systems that travel eastwards from the Mediterranean region and surrounding areas. These systems bring rainfall to the plains and snowfall to the Himalayas.
Changes associated with El Nino can influence these weather systems in different ways. Some research suggests that northwestern India could even experience increased winter precipitation during certain El Nino events.
Past El Nino Events Show Mixed Results
History also shows why forecasts cannot be reduced to a simple formula.
Major El Nino events in 1982 and 1987 were accompanied by severe Indian monsoon deficits. But the exceptionally strong 1997 El Nino produced a relatively normal Indian monsoon.
This year’s winter will similarly depend on several factors beyond the Pacific Ocean, including Indian Ocean conditions, atmospheric circulation and western disturbances.
Rabi Crops Remain The Biggest Concern
The biggest concern is the combination of a poor monsoon and potentially unusual winter weather.
Farmers need adequate soil moisture after the monsoon, followed by suitable temperatures and timely winter rainfall for Rabi crops. A combination of water shortages, warmer temperatures and unpredictable rainfall could increase pressure on agriculture.
For consumers, the consequences could eventually extend to food prices if crop production is affected.
Winter 2026-27 Could Be Unpredictable
The emerging outlook does not mean that India is guaranteed to experience a hot or dry winter. Instead, it points towards a season where temperature and rainfall patterns could deviate significantly from normal.
The strengthening El Nino has already played a major role in India’s difficult 2026 weather story. Its influence could now continue well into the winter, making the next few months important for farmers, policymakers and water authorities.
Summary
A strengthening El Nino is raising concerns about India’s winter after the 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit. Several regions could experience warmer-than-normal temperatures, while winter rainfall may remain uneven. However, El Nino does not automatically mean a dry winter everywhere. Western disturbances, Indian Ocean conditions and regional weather patterns will determine the final outcome.
