China has approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the lower Yarlung Tsangpo river, aiming to generate three times the energy of the Three Gorges Dam. While Beijing hails the project as an eco-friendly development aligned with climate goals, it raises fears of community displacement in Tibet and environmental effects in India and Bangladesh.
Overview: The Yarlung Tsangpo Dam Project
The hydropower dam, located on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, will surpass the energy generation of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the largest of its kind. The Chinese government asserts that the project will prioritize ecological protection, boost local prosperity, and contribute to achieving Beijing’s climate neutrality targets.
However, experts estimate the project could cost up to ¥1 trillion ($127 billion) and require massive infrastructure, including at least four 20 km-long tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain. The river’s dramatic topography and steep canyon—among the world’s deepest—pose significant engineering challenges.
Tibetan Displacement and Environmental Concerns
Human rights groups and environmentalists have voiced strong opposition, citing:
- Displacement of Communities: Similar to the Three Gorges Dam, which displaced 1.4 million people, this project may uproot local Tibetan communities.
- Ecosystem Damage: The Tibetan Plateau, home to diverse ecosystems, could face irreversible damage. Critics argue that the dam exemplifies Beijing’s exploitation of Tibetan land and people.
Earlier hydropower projects in Tibet have provoked protests, often met with harsh crackdowns. In 2024, Tibetan protests against the Gangtuo Dam led to arrests, beatings, and injuries. Activists argue the Yarlung Tsangpo dam could escalate tensions further.
Geopolitical and Environmental Risks for India and Bangladesh
The Yarlung Tsangpo flows south into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, then onward into Bangladesh, forming a critical water source for both nations. Concerns include:
- Control Over Water Flow: Experts fear the dam may empower China to regulate water availability downstream, impacting agriculture and economies.
- Risk of Floods and Landslides: The dam’s construction in an earthquake-prone area increases the likelihood of disasters that could have cross-border effects.
India has responded by exploring its own hydropower projects to mitigate potential adverse impacts.
Engineering Challenges and Safety Risks
The site’s location along tectonic plate boundaries raises safety concerns:
- Earthquake-induced landslides and mud-rock flows pose significant risks.
- Extensive excavation in the gorge could destabilize the area, increasing landslide frequency.
A senior Chinese engineer previously warned about the uncontrollable nature of such disasters, highlighting the dangers to the project and surrounding areas.
The Road Ahead
While China frames the Yarlung Tsangpo dam as a renewable energy milestone, its environmental, social, and geopolitical implications are profound. As Beijing moves forward, opposition from Tibetan activists, international environmental groups, and neighboring countries is likely to intensify.
This project underscores the complex interplay between ambitious infrastructure development and its far-reaching consequences.
