Amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, nearly half of U.S. businesses operating in China have redirected their planned investments to other regions. According to the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham Shanghai), 47% of surveyed firms have shifted capital primarily to Southeast Asia, marking the highest level since the survey began tracking such moves in 2017.
U.S. Firms Rethink China Strategy
The shift comes after a turbulent year of tariffs and retaliatory duties. Currently, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods stand at nearly 58%, while China’s levies are around 33%, squeezing businesses on both sides. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of companies said they are significantly hurt by tariffs, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where supply chains are deeply intertwined.
Beyond trade barriers, local competition is intensifying. Only 28% of firms reported that their China margins were better than their global operations in 2024, while 33% said performance was worse. Confidence in the five-year business outlook has fallen to a record low for the fourth consecutive year.
AI Adoption Widens Competitive Gap
The survey revealed that Chinese companies are advancing faster in several critical areas, including speed to market and AI adoption. About 41% of respondents said Chinese competitors are ahead in adopting AI, with the figure climbing to 62% in retail and consumer industries. U.S. firms admitted they still lead in product quality but lag in digital transformation.
Where the Investments Are Headed
While Southeast Asia emerged as the top destination for redirected investments, the Indian subcontinent was the second-most popular choice, followed by the U.S. and Mexico. This trend aligns with global supply chain diversification efforts as companies seek resilience outside China.
Mixed Signals from China’s Regulatory Climate
Interestingly, the local regulatory environment showed improvement. Nearly half of respondents (48%) described it as transparent — a significant jump from 35% in 2024. Reports of unequal treatment between local and foreign firms have also declined. However, 14% still felt the business climate was worsening, with technology firms citing the highest challenges.
Overall, while Beijing is attempting to reassure foreign investors, the combination of tariffs, rising local competition, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to push U.S. firms to look elsewhere for growth.
