According to recent reports, July 2025 saw the biggest monthly drop of the year, with student visa arrivals to the US dropping 28% year over year to just under 79,000.
In particular, Chinese student arrivals fell 26%, while Indian student arrivals fell 46%.
US Student Visa Arrivals Plunge 28% in July 2025, Marking Steepest Drop of the Year
Since China and India are the two main source nations, their concurrent decline has raised concerns that are “blaring through every admissions and finance office from Boston to Berkeley,” according to the article.
Based on SEVIS and State Department data, JB International and NAFSA forecast a 30–40% decline in new international student enrollment for the fall of 2025.
Over 60,000 jobs and almost $7 billion in lost community spending could result from this anticipated decline.
According to The PIE News, in 2024, foreign students supported almost 400,000 jobs and made $46 billion in economic contributions to the United States.
The financial stability of many American universities, particularly mid-tier private universities that mainly depend on full-tuition-paying foreign students, has been greatly impacted by Indian students, who frequently enroll in pricey STEM programs.
Many families now feel that applying for a visa in the United States is too risky due to obstacles, backlogs in the administrative process, rising rejection rates, and anti-immigration rhetoric.
Administrative Hurdles and Rising Anxiety Drive Student Visa Decline
A number of administrative tightening measures and growing applicant anxiety are major contributors to the decline.
In order to establish new vetting procedures, the Trump administration’s U.S. State Department halted the scheduling of all new student (F, M) and exchange (J) visa interviews on May 27, 2025.
The processing of visas was immediately slowed when this freeze occurred during the busiest summer application season.
Interviews started up again in the middle of June, but with stricter social media screening as a new requirement.
In order for U.S. officials to review their entire digital history, including posts, comments, associations, and even deleted content, applicants had to make all of their social media accounts public.
This led to what the article refers to as “a perfect storm”: invasive digital surveillance requirements followed by a visa freeze during the busiest application window.
This overlap with admissions season created a great deal of uncertainty for Indian students applying to competitive STEM programs, which resulted in deferrals and disrupted a significant recruitment pipeline.
