Covid Pandemic Will End On March 11, If This Happens: Top Govt Doctor Reveals The Start Of Endemic
Head of Indian Council of Medical Research’s Epidemiological Department Samiran Panda believes that Covid will become endemic by March 11.
Endemic means that the disease will occur regularly in certain areas according to established patterns, as opposed to the unpredictable waves that a pandemic creates.
When Do We Know It’s Endemic?
The WHO does not technically declare pandemics.
The highest alert it raises is a global health emergency, which the pandemic has been called since January 2020.
It can be assumed that the pandemic has become endemic when WHO experts declare that COVID-19 no longer qualifies as a global emergency.
Omicron To End Pandemic?
The Omicron variant may contribute to that, since the infected cases are usually mild with faster recovery.
Although it is more transmissible than the Delta variant, it is also less virulent.
Therefore, Omicron may be our way out of the pandemic.
The situation in India may stabilise in the next 4-6 weeks provided that the public doesn’t become complacent and lower their guards prematurely and no new variants emerge.
Panda said that according to mathematical projection, the Omicron wave should last at three months starting December 11.
Delhi, Mumbai Out Of The Woods?
The dust will start to settle from March 11, according to those calculations.
However, we still need to wait two more weeks to say if Delhi and Mumbai have reached their peaks and if the worst is over.
There is no certainty yet despite the decline in cases and positivity in the two cities.
Delhi and Mumbai have a roughly 80:20 ratio for Omicron and Delta variants.
What Does An Endemic Disease Look Like?
One thing to understand is that endemic does not equate to harmless.
Tuberculosis and HIV are considered endemic yet they continue to kill hundreds of thousands every year.
With Covid, even if it becomes something similar to the seasonal flu, it will still be fatal for some.
The difference is that “people won’t be dying indiscriminately because of it”, says Dr. Chris Woods, an infectious disease expert at Duke University.
It will become part of normal life, but we will be better equipped with vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics to deal with it.
What About The World?
Looking at the bigger picture, if the world is to come out of the pandemic, vaccine inequality among nations has to be addressed.
Otherwise, new variants will keep popping up in immunocompromised individuals from poor or developing nations with vaccine shortage.
This would once again spiral into another crisis, since it takes a long time for the virus to leave the bodies of these infected individuals.
In the process, they “continue shedding and exposing others who come in contact with them”, explained Dr Niranjan Patil of Metropolis Healthcare Limited, Mumbai.
Vaccines Play Critical Role
Vaccination is key to limiting the spread and danger of the virus.
Sure, it does not prevent infection or transmission.
But it still works when it comes to preventing serious disease and death.
Moreover, they keep public health systems from getting overwhelmed with critically ill patients.