India’s GDP is doubling itself in less than a tenth of the time it took UK to do so, according an intelligence report by Office of the Director of National Intelligence, US. The report also expects growing demand for energy, food and water to put stress on the Indian economy by 2030.
The report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, puts forward the agency’s views on the state of global economies. It also highlights the emergence of key Asian economies including India and China on a global scale.
All the Asian economies together on an aggregate basis are set to surpass those of North America and Europe combined.
From India’s perspective, the report is a mixed bag of positive highlights including fast economic growth, a potential increase in life expectancy, expansion of middle class, growth in IT adoption and increased urbanization. Increase in use of technology is set to be pivotal in fuelling overall growth.
The Union Cabinet recently announced finalization of the National Electronics Policy 2012 which envisages a $400 billion Electronic System Design and Manufacturing sector by 2020. Increased IT adoption is signaled with such policies along with use of technology to deliver better governance in the delivery of day to day services in the public sector. The Indian economy has the potential to become a global powerhouse within the next 20 years.
However the report also highlights potential hindrances to India’s rise. The US intelligence agency believes that India is ‘vulnerable to volatility of key resources’ and considers the country of a billion plus population to be a fragile state when it comes to demand for resources.
Governance mechanism and overall effectiveness of management will determine how the economy will cope with growing demand for energy, food and water.
The economy of China may become the largest on a global basis by 2030 but United States is still expected maintain its superpower status. The possibility of China becoming the international leader has been termed as ‘limited’. The agency expects China to be stressed with increased demand for key resources and pegs its economy to be susceptible to the challenge of rising above the middle income trap.
Key technological breakthroughs in the segments of big data, food and water related innovations are seen among others, to require increased efforts from a governance perspective. "Technological innovation is critical to the world staying ahead of the rising resource constraints that result from the rapid boost in prosperity" states the report. However certain technologies are also seen as disruptive and pose to be lethal forms of threats which may be tapped by terrorists.