The deadline given by Indian Government to Blackberry has arrived, and at-least as of now, no real solution seems to have emerged. It is very much possible that Indian Government may actually give an extension to RIM, the company behind Blackberry.
However, I wanted to discuss the possible scenario’s that are on the table right now – specially from the Blackberry and their users point of view. All said and done, in all the possible scenarios, Blackberry and their users are going to suffer…Lets take a look:
Scenario 1 – Indian Government bans Blackberry
Although, many analysts think that this is most unlikely of cases, I for one, think it is very much possible. From the Government point of view – it is question of national security and with the events in past few years (especially 26/11), it does not want to take any chances.
From Government perspective – It has already shown that it is ready to act tough. Look at some of their recent decisions like banning Chinese telecom equipment Manufacturers or of non-IMEI number mobile hardware over security issues.
Also, Indian Government also wants to set the tone for other similar services like VOIP, which again for security reasons are banned in India. The chances of Blackberry being allowed to keep data private on their servers are very dim that
And, if the ban comes into play, it will be a huge blow to Blackberry. Not only most of the million strong user’s ditch them, but they will then always remain a fringe player in the India’s mammoth Telecom Market.
Scenario 2 – Blackberry is allowed to keep the Data Private
This, according to me is nearly impossible. Like I have mentioned earlier, Indian Government will not be ready to take any chances with National Security and there is no way they will allow Blackberry to keep the user’s messaging data private.
For Blackberry, it is just not Indian scenario but a global one – If they are not allowed to keep the data private, every other Government will want access and RIM will not be in position to offer access only selectively.
Scenario 3 – Blackberry offers Government partial access on case to case basis
This probably is the best way out – But it will all depend on how (and how much) access is offered by Blackberry. For example: Indian Govt. may want monitoring access based on certain agreed-upon parameters which will scan all the messages and throw up flagged messages (or something similar on those lines). We will have to just wait and see how this particular pans out, if at all it does.
In any scenario, Blackberry is going to suffer – which it already has…RIM’s stock price has come down over 30% since this news has come out and it may slide even further if they get unfavorable decision.
It would be great to hear your thoughts on this..
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Arun… Without getting too deeper I feel that the chances of Black Berry going the banned way is as low as the probabilty of my ceiling fan falling on my head right now – It’s uncertain yet almost given. How it works out is to be seen, probably some commitment from the BB for now and a possible extension to adhere to the security for the time being.
Our government has always loved to fire the barrel from another’s shoulder.We are merely trying to create an atmosphere of due diligence and serious intention but as always, the denizens are the ones who get a raw deal.No amount of phone/message tapping or such surveillance is of any help if arms and explosives find their way in the country due to inadequate security measures, negligence or perhaps even corruption ( most frightening thought ). I fear, but genuinely hope not, that any pro active security step in our country is because of the shadowy world of informers and no others.
Technology is for the convenience of all.You cannot selectively ban technology to hide one’s own deficiencies.Is someone trying to tell us that we have such a dedicated security system in place that all emails and such other mode of communications are being monitored.Please, spare us this rhetoric, let our past track record speak for it self.And if we are seriously concerned about security, let us have a force in place which is well educated, trained with the latest systems and technology , and above all free from any cloud of suspicion with a fierce pride in their job.
Also try explaining to the minority stake holders of RIM why 30% of their income has been wiped out because someone decided that all our security issues are on account of Blackberry.
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