Stanley Morgan has published the Mobile Internet Report along with two accompanying slide decks that collectively highlight the key themes driving the mobile internet market and its adoption. All the reports are freely downloadable form their site.
The Key themes in brief are :
- Just like Mainfarme computing revolution was followed by mini computing and then PC and desktop computing; these will be followed by a mobile internet computing revolution.
- The 5 trends of 3G, + Social Networking + Video + VoIP + Impressive Mobile Devices are driving mobile internet and will make it bigger than desktop internet by as early as 2012. 3G adoption is hitting inflection points across many markets, enabling consumers to engage in a broad range of IP-based usage models (social networking / VoIP / video) via powerful mobile Internet-enabled devices. They predict Smartphones will out-ship the global notebook + netbook market in 2010E and out-ship the global PC market (notebook + netbook + desktop) by 2012E.
- Near term, Apple is driving the platform change to mobile computing and leading in user experience. Its mobile ecosystem (iPhone + iTouch + iTunes + accessories + services) market share / impact should surprise on the upside for at least the next 1-2 years. Longer term, Google Android’s open / free operating system (combined with clever device manufacturers), emerging markets competition, and carrier limitations may pose challenges to Apple’s market share upside. RIM may maintain enterprise lead, owing to installed base, but long-term outlook is challenged.
- Improvements in social networking and mobile computing platforms (led by Facebook + Apple ecosystems) are fundamentally changing the ways people communicate with each other and the ways developers / advertisers / vendors can reach consumers. Mobile devices are evolving as remote controls for continually expanding types of real-time, cloud-based services – including emerging location-based services – creating opportunities + dislocations, empowering consumers in unprecedented + transformative ways
- Mobile Internet development in Japan and desktop Internet business models indicate significant runways for mobile online commerce / paid services / advertising monetization; data access likely will continue to lose relative revenue share in the mobile Internet ecosystem.
- Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier / Equipment Transitions – Global mobile IP traffic likely to grow 66x by 2013E (with 130% CAGR), per Cisco. Increasing 3G / smartphone penetration + emerging usage models (such as video / audio streaming) will stress carrier wireless networks.
- Compelling Opportunities in Emerging Markets – Emerging markets have enormous potential for mobile Internet user growth owing to low fixed-line telephone / broadband penetration + already vibrant mobile value-added services. But near-term adoption / usage catalysts are missing and 3G inflection points may be 2-3 years away.
The last one is particularly important for India. India is one of the biggest emerging markets and poised to tap effectively into this mobile internet revolution.
As per the report:
Emerging Markets (EM) have material potential for mobile Internet user growth. Low penetration of fixed-line telephone + already vibrant mobile VAS mean that for many EM users and small / medium enterprises (SMEs), the Internet will only be mobile.
We are still in the nascent stages of the market, but there are already encouraging signs of adoption of mobile broadband driven by falling prices for already low-cost ‘netbooks’, availability of smartphones, and rollout of 3G.
We expect carriers in emerging Asia & Africa to be better positioned than carriers in Eastern Europe and the Middle East when markets hit inflection points, driven by stronger subscriber growth.
India too has a low penetration of fixed-line/broadband , has a vibrant mobile VAS and with Smartphones, e-book readers like kindle, tablets etc , all the mobile internet devices’ costs falling down, the mobile devices may become the first choice for internet access.
What do you think? is mobile internet, at least in India, is going to be the next big thing starting as early as 2010? Or are there still adoption barriers? I am optimistic and excited and waiting to see the mobile internet revolution unfold in India! What about you?