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Finally, GDP numbers shows India bouncing back

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The Indian GDP numbers for June quarter showed that Indian Economy is bouncing back from the recession. The GDP registered a growth of 6.1% as compared to 5.8 in previous quarter.

India still remains the 2nd fastest growing major economy in the world just behind China.

Although, year on year quarterly GDP growth has come down from 7.8% to 6.1%, it is for the first time after 3 quarters that it has expanded instead of contracting.

Break of GDP quarterly growth Year on Year

Sectorial growth 09/10 08/09
Farm sector growth 2.4% 3%
Manufacturing growth 3.4% 5.5%
Mining sector growth 7.9% 4.6%
Construction sector growth 7.1% 8.4%
Industry growth 5% 6%
Services sector growth 7.8% 10.2%

 (source)

Mining is the only sector that has shown growth YoY.

This is a good sign, but as most analysts are saying a lot depends on what happens in coming 2-3 weeks of Monsoon. Many areas in India have already been hit severely by drought.

So, a lot depends on rain Gods, if we have some good rains over remainder of this monsoon season, we may be able to see a GDP growth of close to 7% this year, and if rain plays truant the GDP could fall to 5.5% !

I would like to rephrase a popular Marathi poem:

“ye re ye re pausaa, malaa milel paisaa,
paisaa hoil khota, jar paus nahi aala motha ”

what it essentially means is that if rains don’t come I am screwed !

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