While this particular report may be somewhat contradictory to what I had posted yesterday , this one is far more detailed and specific to India unlike the reservations posted about power shift from East and West.
Actually, this is a MUST READ for any one who is following India and its growth path closely. The report highlights India’s current situation and how gradually it will have a sea change in next 30 years.
Here are some Quotes from the report:
India could accelerate its real GDP growth over the next 30 years to around 9.5 percent a year and go from poverty to affluence in one generation.
- Under our scenario, 2039 would have a world very different from the one we see today. It would be significantly wealthier, with per capita incomes averaging $23,400 in 2007 dollars, nearly three times the $8,500 today. The economic centre of gravity would shift to Asia, which today accounts for 21 percent of global activity, but by 2039 could account for more than half. Three giant economies, China, India and Japan, would lead Asia’s resurgence.
- India is following in China’s footsteps, 10 years later
- The Indian model of service-led growth is giving way to a more traditional development model where industry and manufacturing drive growth and job creation
- The immediate priority needs to be to protect India from the global recession, and that requires an aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing.
- For India’s long-term growth it is in its self-interest to maintain three global public goods: market confidence and economic stability, a well functioning financial system, and an open trading regime.
- If India is to be a growth marathoner, it must manage three simultaneous transformations: becoming a more cohesive society, becoming a globally competitive economy, and becoming a responsible global citizen.
- India’s long-term prospects and growth will depend on its ability to balance all three dimensions—society, economy and global citizenship—as it makes policy decisions
- “A refocused government is essential to facilitating dramatic transformations in the Indian economy and society. There is a need to rethink not only what the government does but also how it does it.
- Periodic functional reviews should identify areas for the government to withdraw from through downward decentralization, privatization, outsourcing or simple elimination.
- India needs to learn from East Asia, recognizing the mistakes in earlier years and not allowing powerful business interests to capture the state.
India 2039 – An affluent society in one generation
This report has been published by Emerging Markets Forum
Author: Arun Prabhudesai
Arun Prabhudesai is founder / chief editor at trak.in. He jumped the Entrepreneurship bandwagon in early 2008 after a long 13 year stint in I.T Industry. You can follow him on twitter @trakin or get in touch with him at admin-at-trak-dot-in or 91.9822575676.
Related posts:
- Finance Friday: India Growth Story is back on track, ADB lifts India’s growth forecast
Admist all the speculations doing rounds on the India Growth Story, the recent upgrade of Indian Growth forecast by the Asian Development Bank clearly shows that India is going to come out stronger from the ongoing economic crisis. The Asian... - Finally, GDP numbers shows India bouncing back
The Indian GDP numbers for June quarter showed that Indian Economy is bouncing back from the recession. The GDP registered a growth of 6.1% as compared to 5.8 in previous quarter. India still remains the 2nd fastest growing major economy... - Finance Friday : India To Lead Global Recovery
Good news is always pleasant to the ears and when it has India in the mix, it becomes much sweeter. "Economy" has been the buzzword since almost 2 years and for all bad reasons. With things settling down at a... - India Economic Survey 2009 – Analysis and Full Report
Full Report and analysis of Indian Economy in 2009 and its future growth path. The article give simplified analysis of the state of Indian economy along with more than 50 reports of Indian Economic Survey 2009. Economy can grow... - Its India nor China, but Women who will be saviors of World Economy !
Yeah, that’s true – Women will be saviors of World Economy more than what India & China will be – You want to know why? According to Global Study by BCG (Boston Consulting group) – The earning power of women... - China loses, India gains and gets cozy with the US
Well the triangular dance as someone called it included India, China and the US. The 3 nations which will consume most of the world’s resources and which will command most of the services and manufacturing sector. When the dance was...
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
u moved frm facts to fancy in two consecutive posts… previous post was more assertive … this post has only wishful thinkin !
i strongly believe key to success lies in two things:
one, putting more bucks in higher education (Phds) and R&D.
As long as US is mecca for higher education offering great quality of life, all India can hope is unfriendly immigration policies of west to lure back the talent for its success !
second, govn should get rid of all the sick public companies n stop intervening wid free market to let entrepreneurship rule !!!
a 9.3% growth per annum from a GDP base of 1 trillion dollars is indeed something that would be a novelty in this growth. Many people are skeptic because such a thing has never happened in history.
Many countries grew rapidly from a lower base. And they took 40-50 years to reach where they are. 30 years of 9.5% growth is achievable considering the amount of people we need to pull out of poverty.