India in 2039 – An affluent Society in one generation

While this particular report may be somewhat contradictory to what I had posted yesterday , this one is far more detailed and specific to India unlike the reservations posted about power shift from East and West.

Actually, this is a MUST READ for any one who is following India and its growth path closely. The report highlights India’s current situation and how gradually it will have a sea change in next 30 years.

Here are some Quotes from the report:

India could accelerate its real GDP growth over the next 30 years to around 9.5 percent a year and go from poverty to affluence in one generation.

• Under our scenario, 2039 would have a world very different from the one we see today. It would be significantly wealthier, with per capita incomes averaging $23,400 in 2007 dollars, nearly three times the $8,500 today. The economic centre of gravity would shift to Asia, which today accounts for 21 percent of global activity, but by 2039 could account for more than half. Three giant economies, China, India and Japan, would lead Asia’s resurgence.
• India is following in China’s footsteps, 10 years later
• The Indian model of service-led growth is giving way to a more traditional development model where industry and manufacturing drive growth and job creation
• The immediate priority needs to be to protect India from the global recession, and that requires an aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing.
• For India’s long-term growth it is in its self-interest to maintain three global public goods: market confidence and economic stability, a well functioning financial system, and an open trading regime.
• If India is to be a growth marathoner, it must manage three simultaneous transformations: becoming a more cohesive society, becoming a globally competitive economy, and becoming a responsible global citizen.
• India’s long-term prospects and growth will depend on its ability to balance all three dimensions—society, economy and global citizenship—as it makes policy decisions
• “A refocused government is essential to facilitating dramatic transformations in the Indian economy and society. There is a need to rethink not only what the government does but also how it does it.
• Periodic functional reviews should identify areas for the government to withdraw from through downward decentralization, privatization, outsourcing or simple elimination.
• India needs to learn from East Asia, recognizing the mistakes in earlier years and not allowing powerful business interests to capture the state.

India 2039 – An affluent society in one generation

This report has been published by Emerging Markets Forum

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Author: Arun Prabhudesai

Arun Prabhudesai is founder / chief editor at trak.in. He jumped the Entrepreneurship bandwagon in early 2008 after a long 13 year stint in I.T Industry. You can follow him on twitter @trakin or get in touch with him at admin-at-trak-dot-in or 91.9822575676.

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Tagged as: EMF, gdp of india, India Growth story, India in 2039, Indian consumer growth, Indian economy in 2009, Research Paper on India