India in 2039 – An affluent Society in one generation


While this particular report may be somewhat contradictory to what I had posted yesterday , this one is far more detailed and specific to India unlike the reservations posted about power shift from East and West.

Indian growth story

Actually, this is a MUST READ for any one who is following India and its growth path closely. The report highlights India’s current situation and how gradually it will have a sea change in next 30 years.

Here are some Quotes from the report:

India could accelerate its real GDP growth over the next 30 years to around 9.5 percent a year and go from poverty to affluence in one generation.

  • Under our scenario, 2039 would have a world very different from the one we see today. It would be significantly wealthier, with per capita incomes averaging $23,400 in 2007 dollars, nearly three times the $8,500 today. The economic centre of gravity would shift to Asia, which today accounts for 21 percent of global activity, but by 2039 could account for more than half. Three giant economies, China, India and Japan, would lead Asia’s resurgence.
  • India is following in China’s footsteps, 10 years later
  • The Indian model of service-led growth is giving way to a more traditional development model where industry and manufacturing drive growth and job creation
  • The immediate priority needs to be to protect India from the global recession, and that requires an aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing.
  • For India’s long-term growth it is in its self-interest to maintain three global public goods: market confidence and economic stability, a well functioning financial system, and an open trading regime.
  • If India is to be a growth marathoner, it must manage three simultaneous transformations: becoming a more cohesive society, becoming a globally competitive economy, and becoming a responsible global citizen.
  • India’s long-term prospects and growth will depend on its ability to balance all three dimensions—society, economy and global citizenship—as it makes policy decisions
  • “A refocused government is essential to facilitating dramatic transformations in the Indian economy and society. There is a need to rethink not only what the government does but also how it does it.
  • Periodic functional reviews should identify areas for the government to withdraw from through downward decentralization, privatization, outsourcing or simple elimination.
  • India needs to learn from East Asia, recognizing the mistakes in earlier years and not allowing powerful business interests to capture the state.

India 2039 – An affluent society in one generation

This report has been published by Emerging Markets Forum

  1. Philip says

    a 9.3% growth per annum from a GDP base of 1 trillion dollars is indeed something that would be a novelty in this growth. Many people are skeptic because such a thing has never happened in history.

    Many countries grew rapidly from a lower base. And they took 40-50 years to reach where they are. 30 years of 9.5% growth is achievable considering the amount of people we need to pull out of poverty.

  2. Kunal says

    u moved frm facts to fancy in two consecutive posts… previous post was more assertive … this post has only wishful thinkin !

    i strongly believe key to success lies in two things:

    one, putting more bucks in higher education (Phds) and R&D.
    As long as US is mecca for higher education offering great quality of life, all India can hope is unfriendly immigration policies of west to lure back the talent for its success !

    second, govn should get rid of all the sick public companies n stop intervening wid free market to let entrepreneurship rule !!!

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.

who's online