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Sensex at 100000 in 2024. Yeah right!

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A equity research group Elliot Wave International is predicting that Sensex will touch 100,000 points 15 years from now. When I read that there were these words – Yeah right. Like all the predictions came out true before this would be true too.

We are hovering around 10,000 mark now. So, 100,000 points looks feasible in 2024. But, that is not the point. Not even long-term investors has a horizon of 15 years. So, 15 years is too long a period to look at. And we never know if this research group exists in 2024.

My question is this. Should you pay attention to the research reports and the equity experts? When we see a 5 trading sessions with the mercury rising then suddenly it is a bull market. 5 trading sessions with the sensex going south is a bear market. If it is a mixed week then it will be range bound 8000-10000. Thank you very much. Don’t we know that already?

You might already be knowing it, but these so called experts have a disclaimer. That disclaimer says a lot of things but the bottom line is this – we are not accountable. So why would you pay attention to someone who is not accountable for what he says? I wouldn’t.

Some of these experts come from brokerage houses and they have vested interests in the stock they are recommending. They recommend it on TV because they have already recommended it for their clients. This is kind of a Catch-22 situation. The stock goes up because it was recommended and someone recommends because it is going up.

Anyway, the best expert you know of is you.

Would you pay attention to these research reports and the CNBC experts?

  1. Apoorv says

    I agree with your conclusion. Reminds me of what the CEO of Overstock.com once said…”CNBC is essentially a 24/7 hedge fund infomercial”

  2. Sumedh says

    I would say there are some people who are really good…it’s just we need to do our own research and not trust anyone blindly…

    Yes, but that’s true…media in India in general is a lot about buzz and quantity and not about quality…when there are 5 business news channels airing for 24/7, it’s going to be difficult to find quality content…

    I would love to see a show on one of these channels which focuses on quality recommendations and follow up on the recommendations every week…rather than coming up with new recommendations every time… :)

  3. Chirag says

    I woldnt pay attention to the report , but I think this is quite possible if not 1 lac 5K – 60K is surely possible.
    Sir you said – “Not even long-term investors has a horizon of 15 years”. What I would say on this is that the markets wont increase suddenly but in a particular stage. A long term investor may eye for say 5 years the markets will surely increase and give a much higher return than the current levels. So all the long term investors will surely benefit.

    Why I think it is quite possible –
    India and China will be the leading economy in the world by 2025 (TOI).
    Indian GDP will much higher than it is now.
    It could easily be over 8-9 trillion $.
    So I am bullish on Indian Economy (2025).

    Does any one agree with me ?

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