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Future of Rupee against Dollar?

Last year around June I had written about the dollar plunge against the Rupee. For all the Indians living in U.S, it was one of the most concerning aspect as any remittances to India were nearly 15% lower.

Most of them were expecting Rupee to keep on appreciating and break even the 35 Rupee mark against the dollar. Till December of last year that trend remained intact, however 2008 seems to have taken a sudden U turn. After a gap of more than a year Rupee has depreciated to over 40 against the dollar, much to everyone’s surprise. Although it has been range-bound for last month or so, no one seems to be talking about 35 Rupee mark that was expected to hit as per most of the analysts.

Rupee Dollar exchange rate

Even though Indians holding dollars were not very happy during that time, quite a few Indian corporations made hay while the Sun shined. The number of acquisitions made by Indian companies were unprecedented. Due to stronger Rupee and weaker dollar, these companies could buy American/European companies at much cheaper price.

Although Rupee has not weakened to 45 rupee levels, some analysts now see this as possibility given the stock market crash and general slowdown in Indian economy.

I carried out a poll last year on what readers think about the Rupee dollar exchange rates. More than 620 people have participated in that poll and the votes are quite evenly distributed. Very difficult to gauge what is going to happen.

As of now, 22% of voters feel Rupee will depreciate to 43 and go even higher against dollar. 41% feel Rupee will stay below 40 and remain there. Whereas nearly 37% feel that Rupee will remain rangebound between 40 and 43 against the dollar.

What do you feel? Where will this Rupee-Dollar fight finally end?

About Arun Prabhudesai

Arun Prabhudesai is founder / chief editor at trak.in. He jumped the Entrepreneurship bandwagon in early 2008 after a long 13 year stint in I.T Industry. You can follow him on twitter @trakin and Facebook. Arun’s Google+ Profile

17 comments

  1. I don’t understand .. why the question always pointing towards our own rupee… why not dollar .. Why panic ourselves .. ? Let the question .. what is the future of dollar .. ? Yes, b’coz India is fast emerging and will stronger than ever. India shines …..

  2. what wud be the future of usd

  3. Ye to hota hi hai! isme nayi baat kya hai!!

  4. Indian currency will surely overucm USD…………soon.

  5. Indian currency will surely overucm USD…………soon.

  6. Can any body tell me what will be the price of Rupee against dollar by 2010

  7. Buying property in India

    As of now, 43 looks far behind! :) May be you can take this poll again now… :)

  8. hi Mr. Ashok. R u in West africa. can i talk to u regarding gold mmining company. i got an offer from there. any indian there? is it so backward area? regards gejocv@gmail.com

  9. I am Indian living in Ghana West Africa,and presently in India for last six months. As I can see Indian rupee will be trading between 47 – 49 for next 8 – 10 months. This is all becasuse of American big financial companies going bust. In fact they were the ones entered Indian markets with big bang, making easy money awailable. Now that the mother companies are in financial crisis, they are pulling out and this has given sharp demand for US$ and weakned Indian Rupee. Overall Indian Economy will definitly come back to its strong position, it is only matter of time and by 2020 India will be,if not no one, positively no TWO.

  10. I am an American and live in USA. I am really stunned by the Indian economy growth. I think by 2050 USA will be the third largest economy, after India and China! Thats the realty…

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