Bloodbath in Indian Stock Markets

by Arun Prabhudesai on January 22, 2008

This was so unexpected, so very unexpected !

Investors in Indian markets lost more than 16 trillion Rupees in just 2 days !

how could Indian stock markets get shaved so drastically ?

Indian stock market Sensex Crash

Monday saw biggest fall in the history of Indian stock market. The fall was so unexpected and harsh, investors just could not digest it.

In Mumbai, a huge number of ambulances were pressed into service between brokers’ offices and nearby hospitals to reach persons complaining of chest pain or uneasiness.
Doctors in hospitals across the city were hard-pressed to examine the increasing number of patients being brought in with chest complaints and related illnesses. The ICUs of almost all city hospitals were full. ECG machines in several hospitals reported to have failed as the volatile signals were too high to measure.
According to unconfirmed reports, hospitals have placed orders for large number of new equipment to meet the massive demand. Fire fighters had a tough time in various parts of the city trying to bring down people from the terraces of high-rise buildings as they threatened to jump to their death having lost all their savings to the market crash.

Stocks like RNRL, Ispat, RPL, Essar oil and Nagarjuna fertilisers lost 50-70% of their value. Udayan Mukherjee of CNBC TV18 has some interesting insights and lessons. Here are some excerpts from his column:

The first lesson is not to let stock price performance become the sole reason for buying, a mistake which was made in abundance in the last 3 months. The present lost all relevance as people chose to focus on the distant future, perhaps simply because the present could never justify those ticker prices; only a hazy dream of the future could. Traders and investors had no time for fundamental analysts, in many cases they were labelled "cribbing fools".

Stocks like RNRL, Ispat, RPL, Essar oil and Nagarjuna fertilisers have lost 50-70% of their value. It is simply because their stock prices had snapped all connection with underlying business fundamentals, earnings and value. Their stock prices became the only reasons for buying them which works for a while but not forever.

The other big lesson, one which should have been driven in earlier in May 2006, is the danger of overextending oneself in the futures market. The lure of stock futures is easy to understand. Put in some margin, take a big exposure on a fast moving stock, make a killing when prices shoot up. Repeat exercise. Just that people forgot that prices may also come down and at a pace which none can even imagine, maybe their friendly stockbrokers forgot to tell them that part of the story. The result : unbridled speculation that ran into lakhs of crores, excesses that we are paying for today. Even this fall will not cure investors of their love for futures speculation but if at least some amount of caution is injected it would have been a worthwhile learning. Futures are not toys for amateurs, they are time bombs in the hands of inexpert and inexperienced traders, it’s only a matter of when the fuse runs out.

The other learning which I hope will play out in the future, as it has in the past, is that it pays to be brave in times of panic such as these. If I was allowed to invest myself , which I am not, I would have no hesitation in deploying serious money into the market today, knowing fully well that prices may fall more tomorrow. And I would be standing there tomorrow to buy more of the same, till my money ran out. India is going to be a terrific stock market story for many years to come, even an intermediate bearish patch cannot shake that conviction of mine. At best, one will have to wait a bit for the returns to follow. That’s alright. You are happy to put money in a bank FD and then wait for one full year to collect that measly 8%, aren’t you? Then why does the stock market need to give you 20% every month? In the last one year, I haven’t seen so many good stocks trade at such mouth watering levels. Forget trading, avoid the duds which were fuelled up by operators, just go out and buy those bluechips. They will deliver, even if there is a global market meltdown for a while, and if you are a bit patient you will be rewarded. But do remember January 2008, as history will repeat itself again in the future. Just that our memories tend to be too short and our greed too much.

Some excellent points made by Udayan !

I too am invested in Indian stock market. This fall has caused a great dent in my portfolio too, but like Udayan said, if you buy stocks based on fundamentals, you are much safer. Just be patient and you will be rewarded !

I would not be surprised if we see 20,000 levels again in next couple of months !

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Author: Arun Prabhudesai

Arun Prabhudesai is founder / chief editor at trak.in. He jumped the Entrepreneurship bandwagon in early 2008 after a long 13 year stint in I.T Industry. You can follow him on twitter @trakin or get in touch with him at admin-at-trak-dot-in or 91.9822575676.
Bloodbath in Indian Stock Markets

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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Philip January 22, 2008 at 4:30 pm

The madness wont stop. Two months later, the market might touch 20k again and everything would be forgotten. The so-called pundits will be back and the morons will be back to lose their shirts, underpants again.

India is a long term story. I see a bull run for at least the next 20 years. To reap the rewards, simply invest in good companies. I have invested all my money in India and no where else. Cos i trust the growth story of the country.

Reply

2 Krishnaraj Rao January 24, 2008 at 12:11 am

Yeah, the stock markets may resume their steady upward march, but what about the nation itself? The nation is not made of the stock market alone… it is made of its society, it’s flora and fauna, its lakes and rivers and mountains.

While one feels great about the India Growth Story, there is a hidden downside: social and environmental costs are being quietly passed on, and frankly, society and environment are getting saturated.

An important social principle is violated by many manufacturing activities: While engaged in a profit-making activity, one must not leave a mess behind for the rest of society to clean up.

This principle can easily be understood as common decency. If I come to your house as a salesman in order to market something, I must clean up any mess that I make while selling my product.

But this principle is continually breached by manufacturers and marketers on a large scale in our country, and nobody even thinks of objecting!

Have you ever pondered how mineral water and soft-drink manufacturers who sell their product to you in a PET bottle take no further responsibility what happens to their non-biodegradable bottle? Most often, it ends up as litter in the environment, because the consumer simply does not know what to do with the bottle, other than tossing it away.

The same goes for all the metal-plastic packaging of pharmaceuticals. It is impossible or economically unviable to collect and disassemble these strips for recycling, and therefore they end up in landfills, or worse still, in the environment.

This is not how it should be. At the time of conceptualizing and designing the product, the manufacturer has the responsibility of thinking what will happen to the discarded packaging, or, in the case of non-consumables, to the product itself after its use. He must take the responsibility to create a safe avenue for its disposal or recycling.

This requires a mechanism to collect the empty container or used product. So he must set up that mechanism. For instance, the grocery shopkeeper may incentivate the consumer to return PET bopttles to him by initially charging a coupl;e of rupees as deposit for the bottle, which he returns when the consumer returns the bottle to him. These bottles can then be sent back to the company’s recycling facility. (This is how soft-drink bottles made of glass were returned to manufacturers until very recently, remember? We, the consumers, were OK with this system. So why the sudden urge to package everything in discardable materials?)

We should mobilize citizens to demand legislation that every manufacturer must repurchase/collect and recycle as many tonnes of raw material as he uses on a week-by-week basis. For example, if a mineral-water manufacturer uses ten tonnes of plastics per week to manufacture bottles, he MUST buy back ten tonnes of plastic scrap and safely recycle it.

Now think for a moment about used automobiles. Used cars and scooters in India are sold as second-hand vehicles, and then third-hand, fourth-hand. A second-hand vehicle may go from a metropolis to a small town or village. It keeps going further and further into the interiors as it ages, as its condition deteriorates and its market price dwindles. And then?

And then it is sometimes sold to a garage at a throwaway price, and this garage may salvage spare parts from it. ut what remains of this vehicle, including worn-out tyres, may lie around rusting and gathering dust for years and years on some deserted road. The tyres, when they are often burnt in winter for warmth, releasing black, acrid smoke and carcinogenic chemicals into the atmosphere.

Or it lies as a rusting eyesore in some building compound for many years as the last owner loses all motivation to either repair it or sell it.

Thus, every automobile manufacturer sells a product that turns into many hundred tonnes of junk — assorted metal, plastic, glass and rubber junk — after 6-8 years. They end up littering the beautiful countryside with this junk. Is this socially acceptable behaviour?

If one looks for solutions, they are not difficult to find. Legislation and regulations are the answer.

Automobile manufacturers must be required by law to buy back that many tonnes of metals, plastics, glass etc every week, and find ways to recycle them. The cost may be met by raising the market price of their product… but the responsibility to make the recycling activity happen MUST be fixed on the manufacturer of every product.

The same applies to tyres, batteries, plastic goods, newspapers, textiles, chemicals, auto-lubricant oils, etc. The list is long.

It is possible that this will make some manufacturing and marketing processes unviable. If so, this would mean that these economic activities were unviable in the first place, and were sustainable only by passing on hidden costs to the environment, to society and to consumers! Such activities must necessarily come to an end.

Many industrial activities are environmentally and socially subsidized to keep them economically profitable. Let us lobby governments to knock off that subsidy and see how many activities remain sustainable!

I propose peaceful demonstrations to compel industries to self-regulate, and legislators to pass laws:

Small groups of citizens shall collect the branded packaging material of various manufacturers from the environment, and delivering them in large bundles every week to their corporate offices. It belongs to them, right? So let them have it back!

A peaceful demonstration like this, sustained over some weeks, would make a powerful statement. I think this will make a powerful media impact as well… and thereby, an impact on the consciousness of people.

This would be the first step to making changes happen. Citizens, industry and government must first be made to acknowledge that there is a problem; then viable solutions will begin to emerge.

What say, fellow-citizens? I would appreciate your detailed responses to this idea.

Those who wish to join me in peaceful social action (as described) are urged to email me at friendlyghost.kk@gmail.com

Warmly,
Krish

http://friendlyghost.rediffiland.com
http://globalwarming.rediffiland.com

Reply

3 sharegyan February 17, 2008 at 9:30 pm

Dear Visitors,

This is our great opportunity to post comment on this knowledgeable and useful blog.

As we all know USA is heading toward Recession. Which is effecting movement of world markets reason being USA is major economy hub.
Now Our Budget is coming up on 29-Feb-2008 which will act as triggering movement for Indian stock market. We are expecting positive
Budget which will help the Bse and Nse to further move up. Still major support is 4200 now and on upside check out 6000 level soon.

Thanks

Sharegyan

Reply

4 Verghese March 27, 2008 at 8:50 am

It is not a global recession we are heading into, but rather a global depression.

This is not occurring by chance but rather a well constructed mathematical collapse of the financial system. The cull prates of the up coming catastrophe are the owners of the Federal Reserve Bank of the US or widely known as the Illuminati. The US dollar will be brought to its knees when China will dump its holding of the currency onto the market during or after the Beijing Olympics. The global financial system will crumble while they will introduce their new North American Currency called the AMERO. Analysts across the globe are pushing towards commodities such as gold and silver, however this strategy will be futile as the IMF plans to in-sell gold so as to plummet the price of gold.The IMF will sell millions of ounces of gold to other central banks (to prevent them from collapsing like the rest) causing a global crash in the price of gold. Your best bet is to pull your money out of the financial system ASAP so as to prevent the losses that are coming ahead. Purchase Gold and Silver coins as a method for barter trading as that is what we will get back to during a depression. Purchase as much food as you can as this will be something else of value during this turmoil.

If your with me till here … and would like to really know what is happening in the world today – PLEASE EMAIL ME – ricky_mathew@hotmail.com
Just a finance graduate from Australia
KILLUMINATI

Reply

5 Ritu April 3, 2008 at 11:29 am

Hi all,
I hope you all are reading this.. i have made some important observations of late.it seems to me that the jan bloodbath is going to repeat itself in april.Its happening all over agin.. the similarities are too many to ignore.All targets are being achieved and then stocks are falling. just like end Dec 2007 and first week jan 2008. and then came the ist crash right before the earning season. Three months later its the same time again.. ist week april. eaning season . and targets met. lowers tops and lower bottoms being made, …. all listening, pls study the charts. put the nifty graf of then against the nifty graph of now… and youll now what i ean

Reply

6 raju July 15, 2008 at 3:59 am

Now the sensex has reached 12676 levels. where do we go from here. Its 40 percent down from the level you saw in jan 2008. If you had put all your money until it got exhausted, then you would be on your way to bankruptcy. Thanks to Udayan for his valuable advice.

Reply

7 admin March 16, 2009 at 4:12 am

Nifty has recovered well in 3 trading sessions. Has covered 200 points. Overbought, now close to 50 EMA. There is a overhead supply line. caution advised – http:/www.TradersPlace.in

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