Its amazing how technology changes our lives – The life we lived 10 years back and the life we live today is completely different, thanks the advent in Technology. Just think how Mobiles have changed our lives, think how internet has made such a great impact on us…

Have you thought about how your life will be 5 or 10 years down the line? IBM gives you a glimpse of what lies ahead of us probably 5 years from now in their recent release of “IBM 5 in 5” study.

5 Innovations that will change your life in 5 years

Power Production in everything

Very Soon, anything that is in motion or produces heat will be able to produce energy that can be captured and utilized. For example: When you are cycling, Jogging or walking, the kinetic energy produced will be be captured and utilized probably to light your house. Even the heat that is generated while using your computer has potential to be captured and used.

Advances in renewable energy technology will allow individuals to collect this kinetic energy, which now goes to waste, and use it to help power our homes, offices and cities!

Passwords will be thing of Past

yes, that’s right – you will never required a password to do anything, because you yourself will be password for anything and everything you want to access either online or offline.

This will be possible using Biometric Technologies – Each person has a unique biological identity and behind all that is data. Biometric data – facial definitions, retinal scans and voice files – will be composited through software to build your DNA unique online password.

Imagine you going to an ATM and just asking for money in your voice and Machine readily dispenses (using your voice signature). We see these things even today, but 5 years down the line, it will be used for anything and everything!

Mind Reading will not be a Science Fiction anymore

You must have already seen videos online where you can give some basic commands just by thinking.  Many Scientists across the world have been successful in connecting devices to brains and read the thoughts of Human beings.

IBM scientists for example are researching how to link your brain to your devices, such as a computer or a smartphone. If you just need to think about calling someone, it happens!

It will be very much like what you probably have seen in Avatar – Where the guy rides a horse or flies merely by thinking. Its just not movies, if IBM is to be believed it will be reality in 5 years time!

No Digital Divide

This is sure to happen – With proliferation of Mobile devices in every nook and corner of the world, it is expected that 80% of the current global population would each have a mobile device. Even extremely poor people will be connected with their cheap mobile devices.

This is especially true for country like India, where even Villagers are taking advantage of Mobile phone and using it for checking weather reports for help them decide when to fertilize crops, know when doctors were coming into town, and find the best prices for their crops or merchandise.

The Digital Divide will cease to exist in 5 years time!

All Content Distribution will be Personalized

No more will you be flooded with unwanted and irrelevant mails and advertisements – Everything will be personalized. In 5 years time, even unsolicited ads may feel so personalized and relevant it may seem spam is dead. Everything from your ticketing, to your music, to news, to sports, to politics, you’ll trust the technology to know what you want, so you can decide what to do with it.

This is what will happen in 5 years – Think where the technology will take us in next 10 – 15 years time!

Don’t you think we are really lucky to be living in this day and age!

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In line with India’s pledge to promote renewable energy and reduce Green House Gas emissions,  Indian Authorities have today given an in-principle nod to develop 48 cities as Solar Cities in India.

According to the Government press release 37 out of these 48 cities have already been sanctioned. These are the cities which have already engaged consultants for preparation of Master Plans to execute these Solar Projects.

The cities were identified based on their population (between 50,000 to 50 lakh) and an amount of Rs.17.23 crore has been sanctioned to develop these Solar Cities!

Following is the list 48 Solar cities to be developed in India

Note: * marked cities are sanctioned cities

What is a Solar City?

The Solar City aims at minimum 10% reduction in projected demand of conventional energy at the end of five years, through a combination of enhancing supply from renewable energy sources in the city and energy efficiency measures. [source]

The basic aim is to motivate the local Governments for adopting renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency measures. In a Solar City all types of renewable energy based projects like solar, wind, biomass, small hydro, waste to energy etc. are installed along with possible energy efficiency measures depending on the need and resource availability in the city.

Kudos to Indian Government for taking this step!

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Energy is the new Gold. There is no surprise how important energy (both renewable and non-renewable) is for sustainability. With energy demand-supply gap widening by the day, there is an impetus to generate ‘Smart’ energy or in other words find ways to generate and use energy efficiently. Green investments are a necessity for a greener and fresher future tomorrow.

Well, the energy sector in India might just get the much need capital boost from none other the US. India’s energy sector seems to gotten the fancy of US and India might see lot of US based investments happening in this sector.

Case in point is the recent funding of 2 feasibility studies provided by US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) estimated at over $1.4 Mn. The first one is USTDA funding for a $7,19,985 feasibility study to Astonfield Renewables Private Limited to prepare the design and deployment of two solar photovoltaic power projects in West Bengal (5 MW) and Karnataka (10 MW).

The other being $6,86,447 grant to North Delhi Power Limited (NDPL) for the implementation of smart grid technology in India. These feasibility studies are expected to pave the way for future large scale investments in the energy sector in India with a specialized focus on green energy and smart energy solutions.

Clean Energy To See Increased Investments

Even as the energy sector on a whole is expected to see renewed interest from the US, maximum focus is on clean energy segment. Renewable energy is fast becoming a necessity as the traditional energy sources become scarce and the demand becomes scarce.

Renewable energy is a capital intensive sector with long gestation periods in terms of returns. Investment support from the US is expected to come in handy as companies in India working on renewable energy would get to see more funds to carry out R&D.

India and US seem to be working together as far as the development of clean energy sector is concerned in India. A lot of joint initiatives and funding promises have happened in 2011 including the funding of feasibility studies mentioned above. There is a much larger corpus envisaged for Clean energy in India

• US government owned Overseas Private Investment Corp (OPIC) recently approved two new private equity funds ($600 Mn investment corpus) with  approximately $350 million targeted at Indian hydro, biomass, wind, and solar power projects
• There is also  a $300 million South Asia Clean Energy Fund by OPIC, nearly all of which will target India
• India and US are going to establish  a Joint Clean Energy Research and Development Center that will mobilize $25 million of Department of Energy funding over five years for research and development focused on efficiency, solar energy and advanced biofuels

Like with all investments, only time will tell how much of the proposed sum actually materializes but the focus and commitment looks very real. Indian energy sector and especially green energy initiatives are expected to benefit from investment and hopefully technical support from the US in coming years.

I am not entirely sure if these funds will target investments in existing projects or they will have a open policy to encourage brilliant folks to be a part of the clean energy sector in India. If that happens, we might see a lot many clean energy entrepreneurs coming up in India!

What are your thoughts on India’s energy sector? US sure seems to be overweight on the sector and is ready to invest sizable amounts to foster innovation in clean energy from Indian soil

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Renewable energy usage has picked up lot of steam in the corporate sector what with carbon credit exchange and Corporate Social Responsibility. However, like a lot of other initiatives, cutting down on energy usage and investing on renewable power is seen as a cost which does not bear any returns.

Well, to a certain extent short-term benefits for switching to renewable power may not be there. For a lot of companies, quarterly earnings are the benchmark and as such investing on renewable power may not seem like a strategic business driver. Be that as it may, a few companies realize the need for sustainable business and have been taking the initiatives to utilize renewable sources for their electricity needs.

A recent report by Wind technology provider Vestas reveals the renewable energy usage trends across some of the largest companies across the globe. As reported by Reuters, top 5 companies in terms of renewable energy usage are:

1. Kohl’s Corporation
2. Whole Foods etc.
3. Toronto-Dominion Bank
4. Swiss Reinsurance Bank
5. Nordea Bank AB

Of these Kohl’s Corporation and Whole Foods managed to source all their electricity needs from renewable sources alone. Given the size and scale of operations these companies have, this is a significant achievement and my guess is that these companies would have started implemented a renewable energy strategy atleast 5-6 years back.

The report also highlighted other companies who are increasingly switching to renewable sources for their power consumption requirements. Adobe Systems , News Corp, Deutsche Bank AG, Starbucks, Metlife, Nokia, Allianz and Johnson & Johnson are some of the companies identified as leveraging renewable energy as source of power.

It is interesting to see a lot of companies in the financial services sector being big proponents of renewable energy. One critical area I think these companies consume a lot of power would be in terms of IT infrastructure or data centers.

Data centers are huge energy guzzlers and that could be a reason for high power requirements in financial services companies. Companies in the financial sector have started increasing the procurement of renewable power to a great extent.

Technology companies continue to be at the forefront of using renewable energy to power their operations. Companies like Intel, Motorola, Dell etc. have all been procuring renewable power for a long time and continue to do so.

Recently, Google has upped its focus on renewable energy and is even inviting R&D folks to work with Google in generating electricity from renewable energy. I am also curious to know what kind of strategy IBM has for renewable energy. Sustainable business has been a key part of their Smarter Planet campaigns and it would be great to see if the company does what it preaches.

Using renewable energy for electricity might still not have become a necessity but it is an eventuality. It is going to become a key component of sustainable business practice and the regulatory pressures are already making companies rethink their resource consumption practices.

Switching to renewable power might be tad costly but in the long run, companies and the world at large stand to gain from it. So, the earlier more and more companies tap renewable energy for electricity they will not only turn themselves into cleaner and efficient companies but also contribute towards creating a cleaner world to live in.

What are your thoughts on the usage of renewable resources for power generation in companies? Do you see this happening much more going forward and will majority of companies make the switch to renewable resources for their electricity needs?

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It is now common knowledge that Vedanta has shown keen interest in acquiring Cairn at a hefty price of upto $9.6 billion. There has been lot of commentary on whether this is a right acquisition for Vedanta and the issue has been discussed in detail here highlighting critical reasons as to why the deal may not be a strategic buy after all

However, deal being a strategically beneficial or not, the Vedanta-Cairn has quickly run into troubled waters due to various reasons, the primary being the stake of ONGC in Cairn’s assets.

Cairn came to the center stage when it started pumping crude from its block in Rajasthan which was touted as the first major crude oil discovery since few decades. However, Cairn only holds 70% stake in the Rajasthan Oil block (RJ-ON-90/1) with the other 30% controlled by ONGC. So, Cairn needs approval from ONGC alongside the government before even thinking about selling off.

What is more interesting is the news that Cairn has discovered Oil & Gas in the KG Basin. A flow of 75 barrels per day of oil and .27 million cubic feet per day of gas was achieved at the well. Overall it is a good news since we as a nation could do with as much Oil & Gas we can extract. Given the current situation, I wonder how this news will play out in influencing the Vedanta-Cairn deal

• 
  

  Increasing complexity with ONGC as a Stakeholder

  The KG basin block where Cairn has discovered Oil & Gas has ONGC as the major partner with 51% share whereas Cairn has a 49% interest. Now, I have not come across ONGC’s reaction towards the Vedanta-Cairn deal but apparently they would not be interested in having Vedanta take over. With this oil discovery, I only expect things to get murkier as far as ONGC approval is considered

• A possible increase in valuations

  While the oil discovery may not be a breakthrough in terms of the volume or the possible revenue generation capabilities, it is expected to add some value to the assets of Cairn. Since, the discovery was only announced on Monday there could be a possibility where in the initial price quoted by Vedanta might need an upwards revision. Would Cairn push for an increased price and would Vedanta agree?

The deal value is already pretty high and things have not panned out too well from Vedanta’s perspective. For now, Cairn seems to be having a good ride as far as the stock markets are concerned. On a day when the Sensex shed almost 100 points, Cairn seemed to have held it own closing with a gain of 3% at 354.20

What do you think? Would the recent discovery make things more complicated in the Vedanta-Cairn deal

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Telecom sector in India evolved in India after the regulations made competition enter this industry. The National Telecom Policy (NTP) Act 99’ which deregulated the Group of Telecom (GoT) , raising Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limit to 74% was followed by successive policies by Telecom regulatory authority of India(TRAI). The result was declining calling rates, additional Value added services (VAS) and net benefit to the end users. Competition made the sector better.

Today we see Power sector in India growing at the fastest speed compared to other infrastructure sectors. For example in Financial Year 2009-10, of all the infrastructure companies raising funds through IPO, 90% of them were power sector companies. With twelfth year plan target of 1,00,000 MW and recent Nuclear deal, one must be wondering if can Power sector become as competitive as Telecom sectors?

So what is the game changer for Power sector?

The Electricity Act 2003, which enabled non-discriminatory open access for transmission lines. (Open Access: the transmission lines now behave as “Roads”, anybody can access the roads to go to their destination). So even a captive power plant (private power generation units) can use the transmission lines.

Competitive bidding was introduced so that price discovery could be unregulated and the entrant can enhance his performance by improving efficiency.

The National Tariff Policy 2006, promoted retail competition, supported competitive acquisition of generation capacity and enabling end user for choosing the power supplier. The enforcement of Universal Obligation Fund (USO) will also lead to enhance power infrastructure at rural level.

In general, potential competition increased by reducing the need for micro-management by regulatory Authority.

Why so much time?

Unlike wireless technologies used by telecom operators, Power infrastructure requires physical layout of wires which takes time.

Losses amount to 30%-40% of total power produced. 10% of this is due to transmission and distribution problems (T&D) the remaining is due to power thefts. Power thefts is one the major concerns for growth of this sector

Power generation is currently very sensitive to fuel availability. For example, prices of coal, natural gas affects the cost for power production.

Renewable energy is still not cost efficient. Consider Indian coal based power generation costs Rs. 2.1 to Rs. 2.4 per KWh while the same for Wind energy is Rs. 3.2 to Rs. 3.4 per KWh and Renewable sources of energy still requires high capital investments.

Although Power sector currently with Industry P/E (Price Earnings Ration) at 24.48 is ahead of Telecom sector with and industry P/E at 16.55, it has still a long way to go. One thing is clear, Regulator in any sector has the potential to change the market structure, enhance competition and make a difference.

Your take? Do you think India’s Power Sector can emulate Telecom growth we have witnessed?

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On May 15, 2010, Mukesh Ambani went on record saying that crude prices could rise to $100 a barrel soon due to decline in refining growth and sluggish market. Even before the Reliance Industries patriarch announced this statement, the company had already started scouting for unconventional source of energy in the form of shale gas found abundantly in the US.

During second week of April, Reliance announced a JV with Atlas Energy for an investment of $1.7 billion to produce gas from shale in Marcellus region. The strategic significance of this move can be gauged from the fact that immediately in the ensuing month of June; Reliance yet again struck a buy out of 45% stake in shale gas assets owned by US-based Pioneer Natural Resources for $1.35 billion.

This points out towards the dramatic emergence of shale gas in the US and a resultant situation that has rendered the gas prices much affordable in the region. In fact, even India has huge shale deposits across many coastal areas apart from the largely untapped source of gas that can be found in shale’s across the world including Canada and even China.

Shale gas, which is locked in organic-rich sedimentary rocks, is found below the surface between two rock formations where shale acts as source for the natural gas. Earlier, the commercial exploitation of shale gas was largely uneconomical with the then obsolete drilling technologies. However, the advancement of technology led by horizontal drilling, allowed increasing the production zone lying across the wide widths of the rocks for the shale gas.

It is estimated that gas to be found from the Reliance-led JVs with Atlas Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources could be as big as the findings of natural gas from the deep offshore wells of Krishna-Godavari basin.

So, why is the shale gas exploration not carried out in India itself?

A report appropriately points out the reasoning for this being obstructive exploration policies. It says that currently the domestic exploration policies allow companies to produce only conventional oil and gas from their exploration blocks. In fact, when drilling for oil, every company hits shale deposits, but ignores any such potential as they’re not allowed to harness one.

Currently, Indian government has distinguished various priority sectors (such as fertilizers, power, etc.) which need to be feed with the natural gas requirements depending upon nature of their inevitable operations in favour of the country.

At such a time, how much is it justified that India’s giant exploration companies are reaching far away places to tap such resources, when the same is available in India too?

No, I am not putting blame on Reliance Industries to venture into the US for the shale gas reserves, leaving its homeland India aside. But, its India’s bad that its large reserves of shale gas in places such as Gujarat (at Cambay), Assam (at Arakan) and Rajasthan, amongst others, remain largely untapped due to regulatory hurdles which could be explored for efficient gas supplies to meet her growing fuel demands.

However, the government seems to be waking up to this thought gradually. Oil Minister Murli Deora has said that action is on to “developing a framework for an assessment of resource potential, which would lead to exploitation of this resource. Our intention and Endeavour is to put in place a policy framework in about a year’s time.”

Do you feel India should fast-track its agenda to tap shale gas from its territories?

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This has been a raging debate for a while now – Just to give a perspective, in India prices for fuel (Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene, LPG etc) are regulated by the Government. In today’s scenario for example, the market prices for Petrol are cheaper to consumers by about Rs. 4.50/-.

The global fuel market is quite volatile and price fluctuations depend on global circumstances and demand. Now, what Indian Government does is, if the fuel prices are higher, they still keep it at lower rate by chipping in the difference and making up for it when the fuel prices are lower.

In country like India, fuel prices are a very sensitive issue, and it can literally bring down a government. None of the earlier governments have taken decision on this precisely for this reason. However, Congress is currently enjoying a good majority in the parliament and probably can take this step without worrying too much.

Globally, in most countries like U.S & U.K, fuel prices are unregulated – In U.S for example, prices at gas stations change on daily basis depending in the Global market rate.

Now, the raging debate over past few months has been whether Indian Government should do away with fuel price regulation or not. The EGoM (Empowered group of ministers) are expected to take a decision on a proposal freeing fuel rates today.

If the regulation is removed, petrol & Diesel prices will go up by Rs. 4.50 & Rs. 2 respectively.

Here is my perspective on this – I have no doubt whatsoever, that in the longer run freeing up Petrol prices is the right way to go. Yes, it would be a burden on consumers but fuel price regulation is one of the sore points of Indian Economy and has to be dealt with.

Fiscal Deficit is very high currently and one of the primary reasons is – regulated fuel prices – which is expected to put a burden of 70,000 to 80,000 crore rupees in this fiscal alone.

Although, the left parties are sure to oppose freeing up of prices, it is important to be done from Macro economic perspective.

Government can also take a middle path, where Fuel prices can be freed up within certain band, and if prices tend to go beyond that (like 2 years back when it went beyond $150 per barrel ), government can take action.

So what are readers views on this – Would love to listen to your perspective.

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I hit upon an interesting graph, while researching upon the consumption of energy amongst developed and emerging countries. I expected that India’s energy consumption will be low, but I did not expect that it would be one of the lowest in the world.

Although, these figures are not the latest ones, but it will give you a fair Idea about India’s energy consumption per capita in comparison with other developed and emerging economies.

Energy use per capita

Primary energy use (before transformation to other end-use fuels) in kilograms of oil equivalent, per capita.

Just to give you an idea about how India compares with other economies in energy consumption – Indian used 510 kg of energy compared to U.S.A, which consumes 7,778 kg of energy per capita. The World average of energy consumption is close to 1818 kg.

Here is the energy consumption of some other economies (2006):

Source: Worldbank.org

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